I’m going to start in the east, then go to the West, then the South, and end with the Midwest. After all of the questions, I’m going to give my predictions for the rest of the tournament.
East Region
- UConn – Can they shoot better from three? – Against Northwestern in the second round, UConn shot an abysmal 13.6% from three, going 3-22 overall. Against Stetson in the first round, UConn shot 37.5% from three, 9-24 overall. In that game, Alex Karaban shot 1-5 from 3, while Cam Spencer shot 3-7. Stephon Castle went 1-2, and Tristen Newton shot 3-5. Against Northwestern, Karaban and Spencer both shot 1-4, Castle shot 0-2, and Newton shot 0-6. Hassan Diarra shot 0-4 off the bench. This season, UConn shot 36.1% from deep, second in the Big East. Its also tied for 60th in D-1. Cam Spencer is shooting 44% from 3 and Karaban is shooting 39%. They should’ve had a better game than what they did, but UConn still won with the bad three-point shooting. They ended up shooting 53.7% overall which is great. UConn will definitely bounce back and shoot well from deep against SDSU. If they can’t, their shooting from the field will carry them.
- SDSU – Can they reach 71 points? – When reaching 71 points this year, SDSU is 23-3. Their only losses when hitting 71 have come against Grand Canyon, Colorado State, and Boise State, all teams that made the tournament. So far in the tournament, SDSU beat UAB and Yale. Against UAB, they had 69 points and barely won, 69-65. They shot 37.7% from the field and 35% from deep. Jaedon LeDee had 32 points off 11-18 shooting. After going into half up 6, they were outscored by 2 in the second half, and barely won. Against Yale in the second round, San Diego State put up 85 points, shooting 52.7% from the field and 48% from deep. Obviously when they shoot better, they score better, but it also impacts their defense. SDSU went from being outscored in the second half against UAB to outscoring Yale by 24 in the first half. LeDee had 26 points off 9-12 shooting. If SDSU can get to 71, there’s a good chance they can be competitive with the Huskies. However, UConn allows 64 points per game this season, first in the Big East and tied for 12th in the country.
- Illinois – Can their offense attack Iowa State’s defense? – Illinois’ offense is electric. They average 84.6 points per game, first in the Big Ten and tied for 8th overall. According to KenPom, Illinois has the best offense this season. Terrence Shannon Jr. is averaging 23.3 points, Marcus Domask is averaging 16, and Coleman Hawkins is averaging 12.3. Against Morehead State in the first round, Shannon had 26 points and Hawkins had 10. Dain Dainja had 21 points off the bench as well. However, Domask had the best game off them all, posting the 10th official triple-double in tournament history. He had 12 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists as Illinois put up 85 points. In the second round against Duquesne, Shannon had 30 points off 10-14 shooting, Domask had 22 points, Hawkins had 11, and Quincy Guerrier had 10 points. Illinois put up 89 points. According to KenPom, ISU has the best defense. Its going to be a struggle for Illinois, but I think their offense is going to have a hard time beating Iowa State’s defense.
- Iowa State – Can their defense stop Illinois’ offense? – This question is literally the exact opposite of Illinois’ question. Like I just stated, Iowa State has the best defense according to KenPom. ISU allows 61.3 points per game, fourth in the country. Iowa State is also averaging 10.3 steals per game, tied for second in the country. Tamin Lipsey is averaging 2.7 steals, Keshon Gilbert is averaging 1.9, Curtis Jones is averaging 1.4, and 3 other players are averaging over 1 steal per game. In the first round, Iowa State held South Dakota State to 65 points. South Dakota State averaged 76.4 points per game this season. Keshon Gilbert had 3 assists, while 3 other players had 2 steals in the game. In the second round against Wazzu, ISU held them to 56 points. Washington State averaged 73.5 points this season, and Iowa State held them to nearly 20 under that. Tre King led the way with 2 steals, and the team had 5 steals in total. However, they forced Wazzu to shoot 21.7% from three, and only let 2 players go over 10 points. Just like how I answered the Illinois question, I think the defense is going to have some ups and downs.
West Region
- UNC – Can they pull away sooner? – Although they won their first 2 games in the tournament by 28 and 16 points, North Carolina started both games off badly. Against Wagner, the score was tied 15-15 with 13 minutes left. RJ Davis then hit a 3, and UNC never looked back. Their lead got up to 30 as UNC shot 55% from the field and 50% from deep. Davis finished with 22 points, Armando Bacot had 20 and 15, and Jaelyn withers had 16 and 10 off the bench. Then, against Michigan State, Michigan State got up 12 with 9 minutes and 40 seconds left in the first. UNC then took control, and went into half up 9 after a Harrison Ingram 3 with 10 seconds left. If Ingram doesn’t hit the three, UNC could’ve been in trouble, as MSU climbed back in the second half to lower the UNC lead to 2. Michigan State then made the lead 5 with 8 minutes left. UNC shot much worse, 46.7% from the field ad 38.5% from deep. They were also out-rebounded. 4 starters were in double-digit points. Alabama has one of the best offenses in the country, and If UNC can’t stay competitive early, they’re not going to be able to catch up. I think UNC should do a good job of playing harder early, but you never know.
- Alabama – Can their defense step it up? – Bama’s offense has been great this season. According to KenPom, Alabama has the 4th best offense, averaging 90.7 points, the most in the SEC. They’re also shooting 47.7% from the field and 36.7% from three, both second in the conference. Mark Sears is averaging 21.5 points, while 3 others are averaging over 10 points per game. Alabama put the points up against Charleston in the first round, scoring 109 points. Sears had 30 points, and Latrell Wrightsell Jr. had 17. However, their defense was lacking. Alabama let up 96 points, with 4 of Charleston’s starters having 13 or more points. Alabama’s defense is ranked 92 by KenPom. Alabama was out-rebounded by 8, and Charleston had 11 more offensive rebounds. Things improved against Grand Canyon in the second round. Bama out-rebounded them by 9, and they also forced GCU to shoot 32% from the field and 10% from three. Only one GCU player was in double-digit points, that being Tyon Grant-Foster, who had 29 points off 9-22 shooting. Alabama’s defense took a big step up, but can they do the same against UNC? The Tar Heels average 81.8 points this season, first in the ACC. Although it was last year, these two teams played each other last year. Bama won in 4 overtimes, 103-101. Although UNC had Caleb Love and Alabama had Brandon Miller, Armando Bacot, RJ Davis, and Mark Sears all played key parts in that game. There should be a repeat of that this year.
- Clemson – Can they get another upset? – Although they were the higher seed in the first round against New Mexico, UNM were 2.5-point favorites. Clemson silenced the doubters, winning 77-56. Chase Hunter had 21 points, PJ Hall had 14, and Ian Schieffelin had 16 points and 12 rebounds. Clemson also forced New Mexico to shoot 29.7% from the field and 13% from deep. They then moved on to the second round, taking on Baylor. Baylor never led, with Hunter dropping 20 points. Joseph Girard III had 13 points, while Hall and Schieffelin both had 11. However, Clemson committed a lot of fouls. Hall fouled out with 5, while Hunter and Jack Clark had 4 fouls. Clemson shot 49% from the field and 35% from the field. They forced Baylor to shoot 39% from the field and 25% from deep. Clemson had 9 more assists as well. Baylor were 4.5-point favorites in this game as well. As I’m writing this, Arizona are 7.5-point favorites. I don’t know if Clemson can pull off another upset, but if they want to, they need to stay out of foul trouble. Against New Mexico, Clemson had 20 fouls to UNM’s 16. Clemson had 1 more foul against Baylor, while the Bears also had 16. Clemson needs to stay out of foul trouble for a third straight upset.
- Arizona – Can Kylan Boswell bounce back? – After a great first round game, leading Zona in scoring with 20 points, along with 8 assists and 2 steals, Boswell put up a stinker against Dayton. He went scored 2 points, ad had 2 assists and 1 steal. He shot 0-3 from the field and 0-2 from deep. He had 3 fouls and a turnover as well. In the Pac-12 quarterfinals and semifinals, Boswell had a combined 6 points on 2-14 shooting. He shot 0-7 from deep in the tournament as well. When Boswell plays well, Arizona plays well. When scoring 10 or more points, Arizona is 19-1. That one loss came to FAU by 1 point in double overtime. With him scoring 10 or less, Zona is 8-7. Arizona was lucky to get the win over Dayton, but Boswell needs t bounce back big time against Clemson. I think Boswell can, but if he can’t, Clemson could have their third straight upset.
South Region
- Houston – Will their defense turn it around? – After holding Longwood to 46 points, Houston’s defense gave way against Texas A&M. I’ll start with the Longwood game, where Houston forced Longwood to shoot 34% from the field and 23% from deep. Houston also forced 18 turnovers. Although they had just 29 rebounds, they out-rebounded Longwood by 11. Longwood’s leading scorer was Johnathan Massie, who only had 10 points. It was an all-around good game, but it was expected as a 1 seed taking on a 16 seed. Things were obviously going to get tough against A&M. Houston forced the Aggies to shoot 38.7% from the field and 35% from deep. However, the Aggies took 75 shots, making 29 of them. Longwood took 41 shots, making 14 of them. When a team shoots more, they’re going to make more, which led to Texas A&M’s 95-point outing. Along with going into overtime, Houston only forced 11 turnovers and were out-rebounded by 14. All of these were very stark contrast to the Longwood game, which defiantly threw Houston off. According to KenPom, Houston has the second-best defense in the country. If they want to beat Duke, who just had Jared McCain drop 30 points off the back of 8 threes, they have to play like the second-best defense in the country. I think they can turn it around if they stay out of foul trouble, which was a problem for them in the second round.
- Duke – Can they shoot as good again? – After a lackluster shooting performance against Vermont, going 42% from the field and 33% from deep, Duke shot the lights out against James Madison. They shot 52.4% from the field, going 33-63. They shot 50% from the field, going 14-28. Jared McCain hit 8 of those 14 threes, finishing the game with 30 points. He shot 8-11 from deep and 8-15 from the field. Tyrese Proctor finished with 18 points off 7-15 shooting and 4-10 deep shooting. Jeremy Roach shot 5-8 from the field, and Kyle Filipowski shot 6-8. Roach finished with 15 points, while Filipowski had 14. Mark Mitchell was the only player that didn’t shoot well, shooing 1-6. Duke put up 93 points and held JMU to 55 in a great offensive and defensive performance. Houston forced opponents to shoot 39% from the field and 30% from deep on average this season, first and second in the Big 12, respectfully. That’s also first and 16th in the country. It’s going to be a tough hill for Duke to climb, but I think they can stay in it off the back of their shooting.
- NC State – Will the fatigue catch up with them? – After running the table in the ACC tournament, winning 5 games in 5 days, NC State started March Madness with an 80-67 win over Texas Tech. Ben Middlebrooks led the way with 21 points off the bench, while Mohamed Diarra had 17. DJ Burns Jr. and DJ Horne both had 16 points as well. Diarra played 39 minutes, Michael O’Connell played 37, and Horne and Casey Morsell both played 34 minutes. Middlebrooks player 23. DJ Burns Jr. only player 16 minutes due to his 4 fouls, but that helped him play 42 minutes in an overtime win over Oakland. Burns led NC State in scoring with 24 points, and he also had 11 rebounds and 4 assists. He shot 9-12 from the field, better than anyone else in the game. Diarra, Horne, and Morsell all had 11 points, with Horne and Morsell playing 37 minutes. Diarra played 32 and had 13 rebounds as well. O’Connell played 42 minutes and dropped 12 minutes. Even though NC State got the 79-73 overtime win over Oakland, their star players played a lot. They’ve now won 7 games in 12 days, and if they beat Marquette, it’ll be 8 wins in 18 days. They did get some time to rest this week, but the fatigue will play a big part in NC State’s game against Marquette.
- Marquette – Can they pull away sooner? – Marquette started the tournament going into halftime down 7 points to Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers largest lead eventually got up to 10. It was tied at 55 with 12 minutes left, but a Ben Gold three put Marquette up and they never looked back. Kam Jones finished with 28 points, Tyler Kolek had 18, 6, and 11, Stevie Mitchell had 16, and David Joplin had 13. Joplin tacked on 11 rebounds. Oso Ighodaro had an underwhelming game, shooting 2-7, scoring 4 points. He did have 8 rebounds, however. Gold had all of Marquette’s bench points, being 8. After a close first half, Marquette pulled away late, winning 87-69. They could not pull away at all against Colorado. Although they shot 62% from the field and 43% from deep, Marquette’s largest lead was just 12, but that was in the first half. Marquette led the entire first half, going into half up 45-34. Marquette was outscored in the second half, 43-36. It was tied or 1 team had a slight lead for almost all of the second half, but Marquette did pull out the win. Kolek lead the way with 21 points, 5 rebounds, and 11 assists in 40 minutes. He shot 10-14 as well. Kam Jones had 18 points, Joplin had 14, and Ighodaro had 10. Chase Ross had 12 points off the bench. Marquette won 81-77. I don’t Marquette will fall behind early like they did against Western Kentucky, and I don’t think they’re going to have trouble closing out the game either. However, NC State is going to make it tough on Marquette.
Midwest Region
- Purdue – Can they win again? – Purdue already beat Gonzaga this season, that win coming in the Maui Invitational. Purdue shot 47% from the field and 23.5% from deep. Even though those aren’t the best numbers, Purdue shot much better than Gonzaga. Gonzaga shot 37.7% from the field and 19% from deep. Gonzaga took a lot more 3s, going 6-32. Purdue went 4-17. Zach Edey finished with 25 points and 14 rebounds, while Braden Smith and Lance Jones had 13. Fletcher Loyer had a bad game, shooting 0-6 from the field. He finished with 2 points. Purdue’s defense played very well, not letting anyone on Gonzaga score 15 or more points. Purdue got the win, 73-63. Both teams have grown throughout the season, and we’ve seen Gonzaga shoot much better, especially from deep. Purdue’s grown too, and Fletcher Loyer has taken a big step up. I think Purdue should play very similarly to the way they did the first time in this Sweet Sixteen Matchup.
- Gonzaga – Can they keep up with Purdue? – Like I just wrote, Gonzaga lost their first matchup with Purdue. They shot horribly, and no one scored over 14. Graham Ike had 14, along with 7 rebounds. Nolan Hickman and Ryan Nembhard both had 11, Dusty Stromer had 9, and Anton Watson had 8. Gonzaga led for almost all of the first half, with their largest lead getting up to 9 and going into half up 5. They then fell apart in the second half, being outscored 43-28. After a Nolan Hickman layup with 15 minutes and 40 seconds left to go up by 3, Gonzaga didn’t score until the 11:50 mark. In that near 4-minute stretch, Purdue scored 8 points, and never looked back. They kept the lead for the rest of the game. Fatigue was one of the reasons why they lost, but another was foul trouble. Hickman and Nembhard played 36 and 39 minutes, respectfully, while Ike and Watson both had 4 fouls. This led to Braden Huff playing 20 minutes and Ben Gregg playing 19 off the bench. Gonzaga fell behind due to a myriad of reasons. However, they’ve been playing really good basketball lately, I think they can contend with Purdue in this game. This matchup will certainly be one of the closest in the Sweet Sixteen.
- Creighton – Will their 3-point shooting be their downfall? – After a strong first round win over Akron, a game where Creighton shot 56.4% from the field and 59% from deep, Creighton did not keep that same energy against Oregon. Obviously, the game went into double overtime, with 4 of Creighton’s starters scoring 18, 19, 20, and 21. This led to fatigue, and worse shooting. Creighton finished the game shooting 39% overall and 38.5% from deep. They took 75 shots, 39 of them coming from beyond the arc. Their shooting is one of the reasons why the game went into 2OT, but Creighton played well enough in that second overtime to win. However, 39 threes are a problem. If they do that again against Tennessee, Creighton will be out of the tournament, but I do think they will do a better job of taking less perimeter shots.
- Tennessee – Can they shoot better? – Tennessee blew out Saint Peters in the first round of March Madness this year, 83-49. Tennessee shot 51% from the field and 46% from deep. Dalton Knecht had a big game, with 23 points off 8-15 shooting. Tennessee coasted to an easy win, but that was not the same case against Texas. The obviously still won, because I’m talking about them right now. They won 62-58, with the game being close throughout. Tennessee’s largest lead was just 12. They forced 5 more turnovers, and had 6 more rebounds. However, Tennessee shot horribly. They shot 34% from the field and 12% from deep. They went 22-65 overall and 3-25 from deep. Dalton Knecht shot 5-18 from the field and 1-8 from deep, but he got to the line and finished with 18 points. Only 2 other players had double-digit points, those being Jonas Aidoo and Tobe Awaka. Awaka shot well, shooting 4-5 from the field. Aidoo didn’t. He is 6’ 11”, but he still shot 4-12 from the field. He finished with 11 points. Tennessee is going to shoot better against Creighton, because Tennessee doesn’t shoot 3-25 from deep every game. They’re going to improve, and it all starts with the shooting.
My Predictions for the Sweet Sixteen and onwards
Starting in the East, UConn coasts over San Diego State off the back of Tristen Newton. I think SDSU can make it close, as 5-seeds are 3-0 against 1-seeds in the past 2 years. However, UConn has been destroying everyone they’ve played recently, and they get the win. The 2-3 matchup of Iowa State-Illinois might be the best matchup in the Sweet Sixteen. I think Iowa State will win off the back of their great defense. Even though Terrence Shannon Jr. is one of the best point guards in the country, averaging 23.3 points per game, Tamin Lipsey and the rest of ISU should lock him, Marcus Domask, and the rest of Illinois down. It should be close, though. In the Elite Eight, UConn does the same thing against Iowa State that they did against SDSU. I don’t think Iowa State’s defense is enough to stop UConn and ISU’s offense will not be able to keep up with UConn’s. In the West, North Carolina wins a close, high scoring battle with Alabama off the back of some clutch Harrison Ingram threes. Alabama doesn’t have a true big, even though Grant Nelson is 6’ 11”. I don’t think he can keep up with Armando Bacot, and that gives UNC the win. Arizona beats Clemson as well, as Caleb Love leads the way. Clemson got into foul trouble against New Mexico and Baylor, and I think that’ll happen again. That sets up a rematch between Caleb Love and UNC. These teams matchup very well, and I think Caleb Love can pull it out. North Carolina starts games off very slowly, and Arizona plays at the second-best tempo out of remaining teams in the tournament. In the South, I think Duke overpowers Houston with Jared McCain, Kyle Filipowski, and Jeremy Roach. Houston has a great defense, but their offense is not on the same level of Duke’s. Then, fatigue catches up with NC State, and Marquette gets a win. Tyler Kolek is one of the best point guards in the country, and Kam Jones and Oso Ighodaro will do a good job to lead Marquette to a win. When Duke and Marquette match up, however, I think Marquette wins, even though Duke might look better on paper. Finally, in the Midwest, Purdue defies the odds and beats Gonzaga. Even though they are favorited, everyone is saying that Purdue is going to choke. But we already seen these teams play, with Purdue winning. Both teams have gotten better, and I think Purdue wins again. Braden Smith is going to have to come up clutch, however. Creighton’s big 3 of Trey Alexander, Baylor Scheierman, and Ryan Kalkbrenner get the win over Tennessee. Even though Tennessee will shoot better, Creighton has 3 players that can score at a high mark and really fast. Kalkbrenner is also averaging 3.1 blocks, the most out of any player that made March Madness. Purdue then beats Creighton because of their offense. Purdue is also undefeated against top 25 teams this year, and Creighton is 3-2. Then, in the Final Four, Arizona upsets UConn, as Caleb Love and Oumar Ballo have big games. Even though UConn has destroyed pretty much everyone they’ve played, Arizona also has star power. Players like Pelle Larsson and Keshad Johnson for Arizona will probably come up clutch for Arizona in this one. Purdue beats Marquette in the Final Four to face off against Arizona. Just like against Gonzaga, Purdue already beat Marquette. Purdue won that game 78-75, with Zach Edey dropping a 28-point, 15-rebound double-double. Braden Smith had 18 points as well. Tyler Kolek, Oso Ighodaro, and Kam Jones all played alright, but Stevie Mitchell and David Joplin, Marquette’s other starters combined for 8 points and 4 fouls. That sets up an Arizona-Purdue Championship. After losing to 16-seed UMBC in 2018, Virginia won the whole thing in 2019. Purdue is trying to do the same thing. However, they don’t. Arizona is well-balanced and experienced, and I think Caleb Love can bring it home.
I will do an updated version in my Elite Eight Questions post.
