Just Like Thursday, I will start with the East, move to the West, then the South, and finish with the Midwest, then give my predictions for the Elite Eight onwards.
East Region
- Illinois – Can Marcus Domask bounce back? – 2 games after the 10th ever official double-double in NCAA tournament history, Domask went cold against Iowa State. In 38 minutes, Domask shot 2-11 from the field and 0-4 from deep. He did shoot 3 free throws, and made all 3. He finished with 7 points. He did lead the game with 5 assists, and he tacked 6 rebounds on to it. However, Domask finished with 2 fouls and 4 turnovers. He had the most turnovers on Illinois. On the season, Domask is averaging 15.8 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists on 45% shooting. HE did go up against a tough defense in Iowa State, but the rest of the team didn’t struggle. Terrence Shannon Jr. finished with 29 points and Coleman Hawkins had 12 points. Illinois won 72-69. If Illinois wants to upset UConn, they need to Domask to play his best. I think he should get back on track, but it won’t be easy. According to KenPom, UConn has the 6th best defense in the country, and second of the teams still playing.
- UConn – Can they shoot better from three? – This was the same question I had for UConn going into the Sweet Sixteen, So I’m not going to write as much as I did last time. UConn shot 13.6% from three against Northwestern, which was good for 3-22 overall. Tristen Newton shot 0-6 from deep, while Akex Karaban and Cam Spencer went 1-4. UConn did shoot better in the first round against Stetson, when they shot 9-24 overall, which was 37.5%. Against SDSU, UConn didn’t shoot as bad like they did in the second round, as they shot 38.5%, 10-26 overall. Spencer shot 2-4 and Tristen Newton shot 3-8. Those guys didn’t shoot bad, but Stephon Castle went 0-2 and Karaban shot 2-6. Karaban finished 3-11 with 8 points. Karaban is shooting 39% from deep this season, while Cam Spencer is shooting 44%. Not only does UConn have to improve on their three-point shooting, Alex Karaban defiantly does. He’s averaging 13.6 points per game and 5 rebounds this season, making him one of the most important players on this team. Shooting 38.5% from three isn’t bad, but it isn’t championship quality. If they want to repeat, they need to shoot well above average.
West Region
- Clemson – Can they be more physical in the paint? – Although Clemson shocked the world against Arizona, winning 77-72, they got destroyed in the paint. Arizona out-rebounded Clemson by 8, and had 11 more offensive rebounds. Clemson did have more defensive rebounds, but it was just by 3. Ian Schieffelin, PJ Hall, and Chase Hunter combined for 22 rebounds. The rest of Clemson had 14 rebounds. Schieffelin, Hall, and Hunter were also the only players on Clemson to score double-digits. On offense, Arizona had 10 more points in the paint than Clemson. Against North Carolina, Alabama was out-rebounded by 3, and had 4 more points in the paint. If they want to make the final four, they need to be more physical in the paint. I think they can, but the tallest player that played against Arizona was just 6’ 10’’. Clemson is small, but they need to bring their best against Alabama.
- Alabama – Can their defense step it up? – This was the same question as it was for the Sweet Sixteen, so I’m not going to write as much. Alabama let up 96 points to Charleston in the second round before holding Grand Canyon to 61. However, they let up 87 points to North Carolina, barely winning 89-87. Although they forced UNC to shoot 38.5% from the field and 37.5% from deep, Bama still let 4 of North Carolina’s 5 starters to score double-digit points. They only one that didn’t was Elliot Cadeau, who had 8 points. Alabama sent North Carolina to the line a lot, which led to the Tar Heels shooting 17 free throws. They made 15. Alabama finished the game with 18 fouls. They need to foul less, which will take Clemson away from the line. I think if Alabama does that, they win.
South Region
- Duke – Can they keep up with NC State? – After losing to NC State in the Quarterfinals of the ACC tournament, Duke has taken down Vermont, James Madison, and Houston in March Madness. They blew out Vermont and JMU, but barely got by Houston. In fact, I think the only reason why Duke beat Houston was because Jamal Shead got injured near the end of the first half. Houston played the last 26 minutes without Shead, which led to Kyle Filipowski finishing with 16 points and 9 rebounds. Duke did not shoot that well, shooting 41% from the field and 35% from deep. After a 30-point performance against James Madison, Jared McCain had 7 points off 3-6 shooting in 40 minutes. Duke won by just 3, 54-51. NC State plays at the 148th best tempo according to KenPom this season. Duke is at 254. NC State won the matchup in the ACC tournament due to their fast play, something that Duke could not keep up with. These two teams played each other just once in the regular season, with Duke winning 79-64. That game was on NC State’s home court. Duke has to play as fast as possible in order to win, but they need to stay out of foul trouble, something that they had trouble with in the ACC tournament game.
- NC State – Can they beat Duke again? – NC State lost by 15 in the regular season matchup with Duke. DJ Burns Jr. had 17 points and Mohamed Diarra had 10 points. Those were the only 2 players to score double-digits for the Wolfpack. They shot 48% from the field, but 33% from deep. NC State also shot 50% from the line. They had 10 turnovers to Duke’s 5, and were out-rebounded by 5. They righted all of their wrongs against Duke in the ACC tourney, beating the Blue Devils 74-69. They held the lead for all of the second half. They shot 46% from the field and 44% from three. Although they had 9 turnovers, so did Duke. Duke had 5 in the first matchup. NCSU was still out-rebounded. They still didn’t shoot the best on free throws, going 55% this time. NC State kept on winning throughout the ACC tournament and into March Madness, beating Texas Tech, Oakland, and Marquette. NC State hasn’t showed that many weaknesses in March, which could lead to another upset.
Midwest Region
- Purdue – Can they beat Tennessee again? – Once again, Purdue faces an old Maui foe in the tournament. They beat Gonzaga in both Maui and March Madness, and now they’re trying to do the same against Tennessee. After beating Gonzaga in the Maui Invitational, Purdue beat Tennessee 71-67. Fletcher Loyer had a big game, with 27 points off 7-18 shooting. He shot 3-10 from three and 10-11 from the line. Zach Edey had 23 points and 10 rebounds. That was the first game this season where Edey wasn’t the leading scorer. The last time Edey wasn’t the leading scorer was the year prior when Mason Gillis scored 20 to beat Rutgers in Purdue’s first game in the Big 10 tourney. Only 4 other players on Purdue scored, but they were great on defense. They only let 2 Tennessee players score double-digits, those being Dalton Knecht and Jordan Gainey. They had 16 and 15 points, respectfully. Obviously both teams have grown throughout the season, but I think Purdue can still play very similar to the way they did in their first matchup.
- Tennessee – Can Jonas Aidoo play better? – Jonas Aidoo has had a complicated tournament. In the first round against Saint Peters, Aidoo had 15 points off 5-6 shooting in 20 minutes. In the second round against Texas, Aidoo played 32 minutes, but shot 4-12 for 11 points. He then went cold against Creighton in the Sweet Sixteen, shooting 2-8 for 4 points in 17 minutes. He only had 1 foul, so the reason why he didn’t play that much was not because of foul trouble. Aidoo is averaging 11.7 points and 7.5 rebounds this season on 52% shooting. Aidoo had just 5 points and 1 rebound in 13 minutes in the first matchup. He fouled out with 5 fouls. I think Aidoo can turn it around, as he’s been able to rebound after bad games this season.
My predictions for the Elite Eight and onwards
I picked Arizona to win it all before the sweet sixteen started, and they lost, meaning I’m without a champion. But after the Sweet Sixteen, my new champion pick is UConn. They match up really well against Illinois, and I think Tristen Newton can out-play Terrence Shannon Jr. In then West, Alabama’s offense will take them past Clemson, which will set up a UConn-Alabama final four. UConn will be tested, but they still get past Alabama off some good shooting. On the other side of the bracket, NC State upsets Duke of a big DJ Horne game. In the Midwest, Purdue beats Tennessee again off the back of big guard play by Fletcher Loye and Braden Smith. In the final four between Purdue and NC State, the Wolfpack’s magical run ends to the hands of Zach Edey. In the championship between UConn and Purdue, Purdue cannot do what Virginia did in 2019, and they fall to UConn
Once again, I will do an updated version of this in my Final Four post.
