The College Football Playoff National Championship Game Primer – Michigan Vs. Washington
The College Football Playoff National Championship Game Primer – Michigan Vs. Washington
(1) Michigan Vs. (2) Washington – After a whole season of chaos, suspensions, and close calls, the Michigan Wolverines, at 14-0, are ready to finally win a National Championship. They face the Washington Huskie, who’s coming off a close call against Texas in the Sugar Bowl. Michigan had the same situation, barely pulling out a win over Alabama in the Rose Bowl. In that game, Michigan rallied from down 7 points with just over 1 minute and 30 seconds left to win in overtime, 27-20. Blake Corum made a big play on their game tying drive, which set up a big play from Roman Wilson, which then set up a touchdown from Roman Wilson. Then, in overtime, Blake Corum churned out a big, 17-yard run to take the lead. It was the Michigan’s defense’s turn, and after doing so much hard work the whole game, they got the stop. Now, with his first CFP win, rumors about Jim Harbaugh already took off. You have to think that if Michigan wins this game, the rumors are going to skyrocket. Anyways, this game will determine not only Harbaugh’s future, but his legacy as well. He fields a great team as well. JJ McCarthy finished 10th in the Heisman voting, throwing for 2,850 yards, 22 touchdowns, and just 4 interceptions. He was excellent for Michigan against Alabama, throwing for 220 yards and 3 touchdowns. He also won the offensive MVP for the Rose Bowl, and even though he hasn’t been the best throughout the season, he’s definitely been one of the most valuable. He’s been criticized throughout this season, and it didn’t help that he only through one touchdown in the month of November, when he was being talked about as a potential Heisman winner. I gave him some criticism as well, be he’s handled ii extremely well, as he showed out against Alabama. He possibly saved the game against the Crimson Tide when he caught a pass with one hand, and then threw a pass that got Michigan down to Alabama’s 38. They scored later that drive. Even though McCarthy won the MVP and deserved it, Blake Corum made the biggest play, at least on offense. It was obviously the 17-yard touchdown rush in overtime that gave Michigan the lead, but it also marked something else. It was his third touchdown from outside of the 10-yard line, but it was his first in between the opponents 19 and the opponents 10. For someone that has 25 touchdowns this season, that is an insane fact. Corum also has 237 carries for 1,111 yards this year. He also caught just one touchdown this year, and that was against Alabama. Corum has scored in every game this season, and has had only 4 games this year where he’s had just 1 touchdown. Blake Corum is the leader of this team’s offense, and even though every team stacks the box against Michigan when they get down into the red zone, Corum manages to score every drive. Corum has 26 total touchdowns this year, and when you combine McCarthy’s passing and rushing touchdowns, he has 25. Even so, Corum finished one spot ahead of McCarthy in the Heisman voting, and he did that by 7 votes. Corum has 1 vote behind Missouri’s Cody Schrader and 3 votes behind Ollie Gordon. Obviously, the Heisman voting needs to be fixed and everyone knows this, but sometimes the hype will get to you. McCarthy also doesn’t have top tier receivers either. Roman Wilson looked like he was on his way to a great season, as he had 8 touchdowns through 5 games. He had 3 in the season opener, 2 the week later, and 1 more the week after that. Then, 2 weeks later, he got 2 more touchdowns against Nebraska. He’s only scored 4 times since, including against Alabama and Ohio State. He had a particularly big game against Alabama, with big catches left and right. He totaled 4 catches for 73 yards and a touchdown. He didn’t have a big game against Ohio State, but had a 22-yard touchdown catch. In between those games, he had only 1 catch for 14 yards against Iowa in the Big Ten Championship game. Although Michigan coasted to an easy win off the back of their defense, you want your best receiver to have a better game, especially when your offense had the ball for 36 and a half minutes. Anyways, Colston Loveland has stepped up at times, like when he had 5 catches for 88 yards against Ohio State. He has caught 42 passes for 585 yards and 4 touchdowns this season. However, the Alabama defense shut him down, as had just 2 catches for 13 yards in the Rose Bowl. Cornelius Johnson has also been a section option to Roman Wilson, as he has 44 catches for 580 yards, but just 1 touchdown. He also had a tough time against Alabama, as he had 2 catches for 12 yards. McCarthy had 221 yards, but 2 of the top 3 receivers had bad games. Tyler Morris, who has just under 200 yards this season, had 45 yards and his only touchdown. Blake Corum also had 35 receiving yards. However, Michigan’s secondary is a complete flip of their receiving corps. Mike Sainristil has been a shut down corner for U of M, as he has 6 pass deflections and 5 picks this year. He’s returned 2 of those interceptions for touchdowns. He’s also forced 2 fumbles against Iowa, but neither of them was recovered. Other players like Will Johnson and Keon Sabb also have pick-sixes, with both of them having 1. Johnson has 3 interceptions as well, and Sabb has 2. Rod Moore also has 2 interceptions. As a unit, Michigan’s secondary allows just 152.6 pass yards per game, second in the Big Ten. Michigan allows 87 rush yards per game, for a total of 239 yards per game allowed. They also allow just 9.5 points per game. The Michigan defense has been the backbone of this team, and we saw it against Alabama. They held Jalen Milroe and company to 288 yards, and 116 pass yards. Alabama also went 3-13 on third downs, but Michigan also struggled on third downs, going 2-11. Washington also struggled, going 3-11. However, they held the ball for 36 minutes and 20 seconds. Washington’s mid-season resurgence of the running game has kept Washington out of these third down scenarios. Dillon Johnson has been a beast at running back, with 222 carries for 1,160 yards and 16 touchdowns. He had just 12 yards in their first game, and then had 71 yards against MSU and 66 against Cal. Those last 2 games were respectful numbers, but they were getting outshined by Michael Penix Jr. and the passing game. He then had 2 good games against Arizona and Oregon, and had exactly 100 yards against Oregon. He then had just 6 yards in Washington’s worse game of the season, but bounced back with 84 yards against Stanford. He then had his coming out party against USC, as he had 26 rushes for 256 yards and 4 touchdowns. He averaged nearly 10 yards per rush that game, the most he’s had in a game this season. He’s had great games ever since, capped off with a 152 yard, 2 touchdown game against Oregon. He had a tough time against Texas, with 49 yards off 21 carries for an average of 2.3 yards per carry. He did have 2 touchdowns, however. Like stated earlier, the rushing game, especially Dillon Johnson, have kept Washington away from third downs. On second downs, Johnson has 87 carries for 520 yards and 4 touchdowns. On first downs, he has 105 carries for 480 yards and 5 touchdowns. He’s only had 25 rushes on third downs. Johnson did aggravate his injury against Texas, so he should have limited reps against Michigan. Obviously, the main focal point of the offense is the passing game, as Michael Penix Jr. was the runner-up for the Heisman. He’s thrown for 4,650 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. He was excellent against Texas, throwing for 430 yards and 2 touchdowns, torching the Texas defense on way to 188.7 passer rating. Penix is obviously the second best player in college football, and you could see it against Texas. Sure, he only had 2 touchdowns, but he did it against the Big 12’s best defense. Penix could easily be the second quarterback drafted in this year’s NFL draft, and his whole play starts with the deep ball. Penix is averaging 9.2 yards per attempt this season, 11th in FBS. Against Texas, he completed 6 passes for over 20 yards, one of them being his first touchdown to Ja’Lynn Polk. His second touchdown was from 19 yards out, that one to Jalen McMillan. Earlier this season, Penix completed 11 passes of 20 or more yards against Boise State. Obviously, BSU’s defense isn’t as good as Texas’ or Michigan’s, but the range of Penix’s 20-yard completions between Texas and Boise State is just 5. Michigan does have some good defensive backs, but Penix can certainly thread the needle. In the Sugar Bowl, 5 of Penix’s 6 throws over 20 yards were given the “big-time” title by PFF, basically meaning that they were tight windows to throw into and Penix made them look effortless. It’s not hard to make them look effortless when you have the best receiver trio in college football. Rome Odunze was a finalist for the Biletnikoff, and for good reason. He’s caught 87 passes for 1,550 yards and 12 touchdowns, including 6 passes for 125 yards against Texas. He’s had 5 straight 100-yard games, and had 2 touchdowns in the first 3. Since, he hasn’t scored a touchdown off 14 catches. Odunze saved Washington’s season against Wazzu, with a 23-yard rush on 4th down to continue Washington’s game winning drive. That was Odunze’s second rush this season. The first went for 14 yards and a touchdown against Tulsa. Even though Odunze was kept out of the end zone by Texas, he still led all receivers. Along with Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan have been great additions to the offense. Polk has played the whole season, catching 65 passes for 1,120 yards and 9 touchdowns. However, He didn’t record a catch against Oregon State or Washington State. He went for 120 yards and a touchdown off 5 catches against Texas. He had a 77-yard catch on Washington’s first drive that led to their first touchdown. Polk and Odunze are very similar, but Polk is more of a deep threat, while Odunze can make better catches. As for Jalen McMillan, he’s been banged up this year, which has led to him missing more than half of Washington’s games. After last playing against Michigan State, he fully came back against Washington State. Although he did catch 5 passes, they only went for 26 yards. He did lead Washington receivers in the Pac 12 championship game, catching 9 passes for 130 yards. He totaled 5 catches for 60 yards and a touchdown against Texas. On the year, McMillan has caught 39 passes for 526 yards and 4 touchdowns. However, it goes deeper than just Odunze, Polk, and McMillan. Germie Bernard stepped up when McMillan was out. In between the Michigan State and Washington State games, Bernard caught 19 passes for 238 yards. Bernard has 34 catches for 420 yards and 2 touchdowns this year, but also has 2 rushing touchdowns. Next year, Bernard could certainly be one of, if not the best receiver in the Big Ten. If he has a big game Monday night, I could definitely see that happen. Then there’s the starting Tight End, Jack Westover. Westover has caught 41 passes for 390 yards and 4 touchdowns. All of his touchdowns did come in the first 3 weeks, catching 3 against MSU. Against Texas, he had 6 catches for 60 yards. Washington’s plethora of threats in the passing game confused Texas’ secondary, which partially led to Washington’s win. With Dillon Johnson’s limited carries in this game, Washington is going throw it a lot more, and they should be able to move the ball well, most of the time. However, Michigan has a talented secondary that could led to UDub’s downfall. It’s all up to Kalen DeBoer’s gameplan. As for Washington’s defense, they’re going to have their hands full. They’re in the bottom half of defenses in the Pac 12, but Jabbar Muhammad and the secondary have been great down the stretch. Starting with Jabbar Muhammad, he has 3 picks and 13 pass deflections, second in the Pac 12 for both pass deflections and interceptions. He came down with 2 picks against Oregon State, single-handedly winning the game for the Huskies. He had 3 pass deflections against Texas. However, the most important play of the game for the Washington defense against Texas was Elijah Jackson knocking the ball away from Adonai Mitchell on the last play to seal the game. On the year, Jackson has 0 picks, but 5 pass deflections and 2 forced fumbles. Safety Mishael Powell has also been hard for other quarterbacks to throw by, as he’s came down with 3 interceptions and 6 pass deflections. Leading tackler Dominique Hampton has come down with 2 interceptions on top of his 98 total tackles. Although they allow 263 passing yards, 5th worst in the Pac 12, they lead the conference in interceptions, with 16. They didn’t have any interceptions against Texas either. However, Washington has the least amount of sacks out of Pac 12 teams, at just 19. Bralen Trice has most of them, at 7. He also has a forced fumble on the year. He sacked Quinn Ewers twice and also forced his only fumble in that game as well. He was a monster against Texas, and should do the same in this game. Washington’s defense is certainly not as good as Michigan’s, as the Huskies allow 397 yards per game and 23.6 point per game, but they have stars and force turnovers, and that is what matters when you’re playing a team like Michigan. Because Michigan depends on the run so much, they’re going to key in on that and make McCarthy throw the ball. That’s when they’re going to get their picks, and potentially seal the game up. Washington has been the underdogs in some big games before, namely the semi-final, the Pac 12 championship game, and the Oregon State games. In all of those, Washington has pulled out a win and its looked convincing. That happens again, as the Pac 12 goes out with a championship, and Washington wins their first since 1991, 24-21. Odds: Michigan -4.5, O/U 56.5
