My Week 6 Record: 16-9
Closest (Or Exact) Pick: Michigan @ Washington, my pick was a Washington win 24-17, final score was a Washington win, 27-17.
Excited I Got This Pick Right: Washington upsetting Michigan
Ashamed I Got This Pick Wrong: Oklahoma State beating West Virginia
Reactions: Only a slight decrease this week, getting one more pick wrong than last week. My initial reactions were Oh, I did horrible. That was my sentiment going into the two late night games, and I felt like I did even worse when Miami went down by 25 and when Texas Tech nearly blew a 15-point lead. However, both teams got close wins, so my record changed around very late. As for the closest pick, it came down to 2 games. The first one is obvious, and that’s the Michigan @ Washington game. I missed by a Washington field goal, and the funny thing is, Washington missed a field goal, and had another one blocked in their game. If they just missed one more, I could’ve had my first exact pick of the season. The other game was Pitt @ North Carolina, and I had a Pitt win, 34-21. They pulled out the win, 34-24. UNC didn’t miss any field goals, so I felt like I was much closer to the Washington game because Grady Gross very well could’ve had another kick blocked or missed. I was also excited that I got the Washington upset, because it about the only upset that I got right this week. I didn’t have the Alabama @ Vanderbilt game, but I would’ve taken a big Bama win. I picked Tennessee to beat down on Arkansas, but the Hogs flipped the script. I also took Missouri beating Texas A&M, and that clearly did not happen. I also picked a big win for USC over Minnesota, but they fell by a touchdown. On College GameDay, everyone took Michigan to win, so I do take a little pride in knowing I at least am better than the GameDay hosts at something. As for the pick I’m most ashamed about, it doesn’t go to Missouri, Tennessee, or USC, because those were upsets. It goes to Oklahoma State, because they look like one of the worst teams in the Big 12 right now. Mind you, they beat Arkansas, who just beat Tennessee. I thought they could get back on track by beating WVU, but the Mountaineers destroyed Oklahoma State. In a week full of upsets, I actually did pretty good. However, there are a lot or marquee matchups this week, and when I say a lot, I mean a lot. This week could be the toughest for me to predict for the entire season, but if I come out of it with a winning record, I’ll count that as a massive win.
(Rankings based off of the AP Poll)
1. (2) Ohio State @ (3) Oregon – Everyone coming into the season was wondering if Ohio State or Oregon was going to win the Big Ten. This is where one of these teams takes control of the conference in a potential conference championship preview. Number 2 takes on number 3 in a game that will certainly be an all-time classic. Both teams are 3 levels deep, meaning they have a good quarterback, a good running back room, and a good defense. I’ll start with the first of these levels for Ohio State, which is the quarterback.
• Will Howard washed away all my doubts. I talked about this last week, and how I didn’t know how well Will Howard would play against a great defense. However, he showed up and showed out. He completed 84% of his passes, the second best of his starting career. He threw for 209 yards, and had 5 total touchdowns, 4 through the air. In a 35-7 win, Howard accounted for all of OSU’s points, which is an impressive feat. 3 of his touchdowns went to Emeka Egbuka, and his other one went to Jeremiah Smith. Even though Howard only threw for 209 yards, I’m ready to knock the game manager title off of him. He made all of the right throws, except for his pick that came right before halftime. Will Howard has thrown for 1,248 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 3 picks so far this season, while rushing for 4 touchdowns. He’s had a touchdown in 4 straight game, and hopes to see that streak continue. With great wide receivers like Egbuka, who's caught 30 passes for 433 yards and 5 touchdowns, and Jeremiah Smith, the star freshman that’s caught 23 passes, going for 453 yards and 6 touchdowns. Carnell Tate, who didn’t play against Iowa, has caught 14 passes for 219 yards and a touchdown. He was available last week, and unless his injury worsens, he’ll be back and playing against the Ducks. With the weapons around Howard in the passing game, he’s been able to make it work. He’s had a lot of pressure off his back as well, and that’s because…
• Ohio State has the best running back tandem in the nation. TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins have combined for 102 carries, 805 yards, and 9 touchdowns, being one of the most feared duos potentially ever. They’ve led Ohio State to averaging 222.2 rush yards per game, second in the Big Ten. They’re averaging 6.2 yards per rush, leading the conference. The 805 yards that they’ve combined for would be second if they were just 1 player. And its not like they get the advantage of having 2 different full running back workloads because they’re splitting carries. Ryan Day and Chip Kelly have found a way for this to work, and its only producing one of the best teams in the nation. James Peoples has also mixed into the ground game, as he’s ran 35 times for 153 yards and 2 touchdowns. However, he hasn’t had the best of luck against Michigan State and Iowa, as he’s ran 13 times for just 41 yards in these 2 games. I would expect him to be used even less in this big of a game. Henderson and Judkins should run all over Oregon if they get the chance, and that can happen easily if…
• The best defense in the nation keeps on rolling. Allowing 6.8 points per game and 202.4 yards per game, both first in the nation, especially the yards. The next closest team to Ohio State in yards per game allowed is Tennessee, and they’re allowing just 227. They’ve let up 7 points 2 games in a row, and the greatest number of points they’ve allowed in a game do far is just 14. Ohio State’s defense had a tough task last week, as they had to stop Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson. Johnson had 206 yards, 3 touchdowns, and averaged 9.8 yards the week prior. However, The OSU defense gave up just 86 yards out of him, and 1 touchdown, which was 28 yards. They held him to 5.7 yards per carry as well. Who’s to say that Ohio State doesn’t do the same to Jordan James this week? Ohio State has forced 9 turnovers and 17 sacks as well. The sacks are tied for the third most in the Big Ten. Ohio State might have a tough time this week, as Gabriel hasn’t been sacked in 3 straight games. Speaking of Dillon Gabriel…
• Dillon Gabriel needs to rebound. He was the Heisman favorite coming into the year, and after a good start, Gabriel stumbled last week. His completion percentage, which was one of the highest coming into the game, fell to 62.5%. How that’s not bad, but from what we’ve seen from him earlier in the season, it’s still disappointing. Gabriel still leads the country in completion percentage, however, as he’s completed 77.8% of his passes. Gabriel also threw 2 picks, which came on Oregon’s second and fourth drives. In a game of this caliber, early mistakes like these can ruin the game for you. Gabriel also threw for 257 yards, the second lowest of his season. He did have 3 total touchdowns in the win over Michigan State. The mistakes that Gabriel did make last week not only cost him a spot in my top 5 Heisman candidates, but if eh makes them again, Oregon will certainly lose this game. Gabriel once again found Tez Johnson a lot, but Evan Stewart a little. Johnson came down with 10 catches for 84 yards and a touchdown, while Stewart had 2 catches for 20 yards. Stewart did get a touchdown, but for one of the top transfers this offseason, you would’ve thought that he would be used more. However, he has just 16 catches for 182 yards and 2 touchdowns. Oregon’s receivers are stacked, but having one of the best talents in college football and under using them will lead to struggles. If Gabriel wants to get back on track, he’ll have to find Stewart.
• Jordan James has to be one of the most underrated backs in the nation. Now, James’ stats aren’t near the top like Ashton Jeanty or Kaleb Johnson, but for a team that’s averaging 294.2 pass yards per game, James has found a way to stand out. Yet, I’ve barely heard his name when it comes to any college football coverage. He’s ran 88 times for 552 yards and 5 touchdowns, 24th, 22th, and tied for 8th in the nation, respectively. James had the best game of his season last week, rushing 24 times for 166 yards and a touchdown, making it his third straight game with a touchdown. Against a great defense, if James can keep up this level of play, he’ll get the national attention he deserves.
• Oregon’s defense has been top tier this season. Because of all of the parody in college football, you or the unit have to be really good in order to standout. Oregon’s defense has been really good, but they still haven’t been able to standout. They’re allowing just 263.4 yards per game and 17 points per game, sixth and ninth in the Big Ten. Someone that is garnering a lot of attention for the Oregon defense is Jordan Burch, who’s had 5 sacks so far this year, leading not only the Ducks in sacks, but also the Big Ten. He’s been a force through the air as well, as he has 3 pass deflections. Oregon has come down with 5 turnovers, 4 of them being picks. If they can force Will Howard into some trouble this week, they will win the game.
This game will be one of the most exhilarating, close, and exciting games we will see all season, and it ends in an Ohio State win, 34-31.
2. (9) Ole Miss @ (13) LSU – This game had ridiculous amounts off offense last year, that ended in a 55-49 win for Ole Miss. The Rebels had 706 total yards and 32 first downs, while LSU had 637 yards and 34 first downs. Absolutely no defense was played, and this game was trending in that direction before last week. I’ll talk about that later, and I’ll get into these 2 teams’ seasons now. Ole Miss dominated all of their opponents before running into Kentucky, but rebounded against SC. As for LSU, they survived against pretty much every team they’ve played since losing to USC. I’ll start with Ole Miss, and their offense has…
• Ole Miss’s offense has stagnated. After scoring 76 points against Furman, 40 against Wake Forest, and 52 against Middle Tennessee State and Georgia Southern, but then ran into a wall against Kentucky. In their upset loss, Ole Miss scored just 17 points. Jaxson Dart, who was leading the country in passing yards coming into the game, threw for just 261 yards and a touchdown. Ole Miss barely outgained Kentucky, as they had 353 yards to the Wildcats 336. Ole Miss had a horrible day on third down, as they went 1-10. They lost a fumble as well, and held the ball for just 20 minutes and 15 seconds. The defense couldn’t get off the field, and when the offense was on the field, they couldn’t stay on the field. Although their offense got better against South Carolina, this time scoring 27 points and gaining 425 yards, it wasn’t what we expected out of them. All of Ole Miss’s touchdowns came from within the 3, and the offense could only muster a field goal in the second half. Ole Miss is still averaging 576.8 yards per game and 44 points per game, first and tenth in the nation, respectively. The offense did rebound against SC, yes, but…
• Their defense carried the Rebels to a win last week. Like I said, Ole Miss had just 3 points in the second half, but their defense thrived there. SC missed a field goal on their first drive of their second half, then Ole Miss forced a punt, picked off LaNorris Sellers, and then stopped SC on fourth down to win, pitching a shutout in the last 2 quarters. When it was all said and done, Ole Miss forced 2 turnovers, sacked LaNorris Sellers 6 times, had 10 TFLs, and deflected 5 passes. It felt like a no fly and no rush zone for most of the game especially in the second half. Although what we’ve seen from the Ole Miss offense recently, their defense has been nice. They’re going to need the defense to carry over that hot streak into this game, because LSU loves to put up yards and score points.
• Not the same Jaxson Dart, but still a good one. Just like the Ole Miss offense, Dart has been trending down as of late. He threw for at least 377 yards in his first 4 games, but hasn’t gotten back into the 300s since the win over Georgia Southern. He threw for 261 yards and a touchdown against Kentucky, but his numbers then got worse against SC. He did throw for 28 yards, but no touchdowns, and completed just 52% of his passes. He has been adding a bit on the ground as of late, and we saw it last week as he ran for 44 yards. However, Dart’s stats are not the same as the Heisman candidate stats he had earlier in the season. I don’t think it’s the shock of playing SEC competition either, because he had a whole game before taking on South Carolina and still played poorly. Dart has still thrown for 2,100 yards, 13 touchdowns, and just 2 picks, while adding 3 touchdowns on the ground. He hasn’t been horrible, and I think he should get back on track because LSU does not play a lot of defense.
• Garrett Nussmeier has to be perfect this week. LSU rolled to an easy win 2 weeks ago, beating down on South Alabama, 42-10. Nussmeier played pretty well, throwing for 410 yards, and scoring 4 total touchdowns, 2 through the air and 2 on the ground. However, he threw 2 picks. In game as big as this one, Nussmeier is going to have to cut down on these mistakes, although they are just a few. He hasn’t made too any of those this year, as he’s thrown for 1,652 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 4 picks. He did throw a pick against USC and against South Carolina, LSU’s toughest competition so far. If the trend of him throwing picks to good teams continues this week, Ole Miss will have a win.
• LSU still does not have a run game. Last year, LSU did not have to worry about their ground game Jayden Daniels finished with over 1,100 rushing yards from basically just scrambling. Logan Diggs was the leading back, but he transferred in the offseason to no other team than Ole Miss. He’s been hurt all season, however, so don’t expect him to play this game. Now, on the ground this year, Caden Durham is the leading rusher. He’s a true freshman, and has run 29 times for 244 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s been valuable through the air as well, catching 6 passes for 130 yards and 2 touchdowns. Behind Durham is Josh Williams, who has 41 carries for 116 yards and 3 touchdowns. Kaleb Jackson has 34 carries for 118 yards as well. All of these guys have gotten a solid number of carries, but have done nothing with it. LSU is averaging just 131.2 rush yards per game, second worst in the SEC. Their 134 carries are dead last as well. This game should be a shootout, and LSU wouldn’t need to use their rushing game as much. However, in some key parts of the game, all LSU can do is run, and they’ll be in a world of hurt if they don’t establish the run early, which they’ve obviously have had trouble doing.
• LSU’s defense can’t stop a tortoise if it got onto the football field. I don’t know what LSU has to fix their defense. Maybe they should give Baylor enough money for them to buy out Dave Aranda and re-hire him. All jokes aside, the LSU defense is terrible. They’re allowing 353.6 yards per game and 21.6 points per game, third and fourth worst in the SEC. Clearly, the only thing that means more when it comes to the LSU defense is more yards and points for the opposing team. Its not all bad, however. LSU has sacked opposing quarterbacks 15 times. The only downside is, they’ve picked them off just twice. Jaxson Dart hasn’t turned it over much this season, and I don’t think the LSU defense can force a pick out of him.
Both teams’ offenses are going to be firing on all levels, and I do feel like LSU has been a little disrespected in the rankings, but that doesn’t mean I’m taking them. Ole Miss wins, 49-45.
3. (4) Penn State @ USC – At this point, what are we even doing, AP Poll voters? USC was upset last week on the road to Minnesota. That had them fall from 11th to out of the rankings entirely. They are technically the 26th best team in the nation, as they’re getting the most votes out of any team that’s not ranked. That doesn’t matter, though. Unranked is unranked, no matter how you look at it. USC is going to be playing with a big chip on their shoulder because of this. The Trojans only 2 losses were both on the road, and they were in Michigan and Minnesota. I know its early October, but Michigan and Minnesota don’t have exactly the same weather as Los Angeles. USC is finally on the other side of the coin this week, as they host Penn State, coming all the way from Pennsylvania, and coming off 5 straight wins. I’ll start with the Nittany Lions, and…
• They’ve been doing it quietly, but well. There were a lot of expectations placed on Penn State coming into the year. With the new 12 team playoff, this year could finally be Penn State’s chance to make the playoff. No Oregon or Michigan on the schedule, and Ohio State at home. They started their season off with a blowout over West Virginia, but then struggled against Bowling Green. However, they regrouped after a key early bye week to blow out Kent State, and then take down ranked Illinois in a white-out. They were supposed to blow out UCLA last week, and although they didn’t, they still handled business. Penn State started the season off ranked 8, and after moving back to tenth after the Bowling Green game and the bye week, they’ve slowly but surely climbed up to fourth in the country. If they can take down USC this week, they’ll be a top 3 team because Ohio State and Oregon, ranked 2nd and 3rd, are facing off. The reason why Penn State has been a silent assassin has been because of…
• Tyler Warren has been doing everything on offense. He’s scored in 3 different ways. He’s ran for a touchdown, he’s caught multiple touchdowns, and he’s thrown for a touchdown as well. He’s even returned a kickoff, which went for 11 yards. Warren has caught 23 passes, garnering 290 yards and 3 touchdowns. He's ran 4 times for 34 yards and a touchdown. He’s thrown one pass as well, which was a 17-yard touchdown. Although he doesn’t have the yards to show for it, when you score as much as Warren does, that means that you have more people than just him scoring, and that’s lead to Penn State averaging 34.4 points per game, fourth in the Big Ten. Think of Warren as the college football version of Taysom Hill, as he leads Penn State in receiving yards.
• The offensive trio is still clicking. Drew Allar has completed a total 180 from last year, and Nicholas Singleton ad Kaytron Allen keep playing amazingly in tandem. The major knock-on Allar last year was that he could not perform in big games. He struggled a lot against Ohio state and Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl, while having the worst game of his career against Michigan. Allar shined against West Virginia, throwing for 216 yards and 3 touchdowns. He did a little worse against Illinois, throwing for just 135 yards. However, it was a poor offensive performance from both teams, and he rebounded against UCLA, throwing for 237 yards and scoring twice, one on the ground and another through the air. He’s thrown for 1,101 yards, 9 touchdowns, and just 1 pick so far this year. He’s ran for 3 touchdowns as well. As for Singleton, he’s made the most out of his carries. Kaytron Allen has 21 more carries than Singleton, but Singleton is the leading back. He’s ran 53 times for 408 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s averaging 7.7 yards per carry, one of the highest when it comes to actual starting running backs in the Big Ten. As for Allen, he has 74 carries, and he’s ran for 367 yards and 2 touchdowns. Both of his touchdowns have come in back-to-back games. Singleton had a touchdown against Illinois, but did not play against UCLA. He was a late scratch, so I do have hope that he’ll play this week. If he doesn’t, another similar work load will come from Allen, who had 21 carries in a win over UCLA.
• Learn how to stop the QB Sneak. It sounds like such an easy thing to do, but USC could not do that against Minnesota. They let up 3 touchdowns, all runs from Minnesota’s QB, Max Brosmer. Brosmer scored from the one twice and once from the five-yard line. Both of the touchdowns from the one were QB sneaks, and were basically like the tush push. On the other touchdown, pretty much everyone on USC went to the running back, and failed to consider the option that the QB could keep it, which is exactly what Brosmer did. Now, USC did get one stop before the last 1-yard touchdown run, which came on a QB sneak. However, it was such a massive sea of bodies that they refs couldn’t see where Brosmer and the ball was. If the refs could see if Brosmer actually got in or not, USC wouldn’t have any stops. The Trojans knew it was coming, but either couldn’t stop it or just over played the situation. USC let up nearly 200 rush yards as well. USC should once again be exposed when it comes to the rush defense, especially if Nicholas Singleton comes back. USC is allowing 158.6 rush yards per game, second worst in the Big Ten. It should be another long day for the USC defense.
• Miller Moss had his first bad game. He went 23/38, throwing for a career low 200 yards, along with 1 touchdown to 2 picks. USC’s leading receiver had just 54 yards, and it was just an all-around bad day for Moss. He even had a better game against Michigan, when he led them to a comeback. It felt like Minnesota had all of the counters for Moss, which led to them getting the upset. Moss didn’t add anything to the ground game, but was sacked just once. Moss can bounce back, but if he can’t USC is deeply in trouble. Moss has thrown for 1,400 yards, 9 touchdowns, but 4 interceptions so far this year. Zachariah Branch was bottled up last week, catching just 3 passes for 10 yards. If Moss is going to rebound, he’s got to find Branch a lot more.
• Woody Marks got it going again last week. After a pretty performance against LSU to start the season, Marks ran for 100 yards on 13 carries in back-to-back games, while also getting 40 receiving yards in both games. His carries were increased against Wisconsin, rushing 19 times. He had a season low in rush yards, however, with just 63 yards. He caught 4 passes for 30 yards, something he repeated again against Minnesota. On the ground, he had 20 carries, a season high, and he turned that in 134 yards and a touchdown. He was the lone bright spot for about all of USC, and sitting at 468 yards and 4 touchdowns on 81 carries, if Marks can keep his play up, USC could turn their season around.
USC had a lot go wrong last week, but coming back home and a hopefully better Miller Moss could lead them to a bounce back win. I’m not picking against Drew Allar and the Penn State offense, however, and they win 27-24.
4. (1) Texas Vs. (T-18) Oklahoma – The Red River Rivalry is one of those rivalries where no matter how good or how bad one team is, they’re going to give it 110% every game. No matter how good or how bad, this game will be close. That sentiment couldn’t be truer for this year, as Texas rolls into this game undefeated, and ranked first in the nation. As for Oklahoma, they’re in a 3-way tie for 18th with Kansas State and Indiana. They’re 4-1, with their only loss coming to Tennessee, and that game could’ve changed the future of this season – and potentially the program – for the better.
• Could Michael Hawkins Jr. pull a Caleb Williams? Back in 2021, Spencer Rattler struggled a lot in the first half of the Red River Rivalry. He went 8/15, throwing for 111 yards and a pick, was sacked 3 times, and also lost a fumble. That forced Lincoln Riley to make the change to Caleb Willaims right before the half, and took Oklahoma on a field goal drive right before the half to make the score 35-20. Williams then threw for 2 touchdowns, and led Oklahoma on 2 more field goal and 2 more touchdown drives, with a 33 yards run from Kennedy Brooks with 3 seconds left to win. Something similar happened with Oklahoma earlier this game against Tennessee. Jackson Arnold, the supposed heir to the throne at OU, just like Rattler was, struggled in the first half. He went 7/16 through the air, throwing for just 54 yards, and also threw a pick. However, instead of losing 1 fumble like Rattler, he lost 2. Also right before half, Brent Venables changed quarterbacks from Arnold to Michael Hawkins Jr., who didn’t play as well as Caleb Williams, but still played well. Hawkins threw for 132 yards and a touchdown on 11/18 passing. He was also the leading rusher for OU, but he did have just 22 yards. While Arnold was the starting QB, OU managed just 1 field goal. Hawkins led Oklahoma on 2 touchdown drives, giving them life in the game. Hawkins has started since, and led OU to a win over Auburn the following week. Although the situations aren’t exactly the same, if the preseason backup can be inserted right before half and led OU to a win over Texas, it would be quite a coincidence. Hawkins has thrown for 310 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for 100 yards and a touchdown. Now, Texas was kind of in OU’s shoes back in 2021, as Oklahoma was the high ranked team taking on the lower ranked team. With a great defense out of Texas this season, I think it will be hard for Hawkins to repeat what Williams did.
• OU has no ground game whatsoever. Their leading rusher is Jovantae Barnes, who has 57 carries for 200 yards and 2 touchdowns. Those yards are 26th in the SEC. Every other team in the SEC has at least one rusher that has more yards than Barnes, whether it be Texas or Mississippi State. Oklahoma is averaging 128.6 rush yards per game, dead last in the SEC. Jackson Arnold had 140 yards and 2 touchdowns, but with his benching, OU won’t get that anymore. Hawkins can run, be he doesn’t run to the extent that Arnold did. Taylor Tatum has added just 116 yards and 2 touchdowns on 18 carries. Because Oklahoma cannot run the ball, their average time of possession is just under 27 minutes. Texas is going to expose that a lot if OU can’t get the rush game going.
• It feels like all of their wide receivers were out, and Dein Burks is still out. Burks got hurt against Tennessee, but is still the Sooners leading receiver, with 201 yards and 3 touchdowns on 26 catches. He’s still out this week, and he transferred in to Oklahoma after a pretty good season at Purdue. That’s going to make the road for Michael Hawkins Jr. a lot harder, but Bauer Sharp has emerged as the best tight end, as he’s caught 18 passes for 160 yards and a touchdown. Jalil Farooq is still out, and it doesn’t look like Nic Anderson or Andrel Anthony are supposed to play. Arnold and Hawkins haven’t had the best receivers to throw too, and its really impressive that OU is 4-1 and still ranked.
• Quinn Ewers is back for Texas. His early season injury bug continued this year, as Ewers was knocked out against UTSA. By then, Ewers had thrown for 691 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 2 picks. Although he threw 2 picks, neither of them came against Michigan, where Ewers threw for 246 yards and 3 touchdowns in a dominant road win. Arch Manning stepped in after Ewers got hurt against UTSA, where he threw for 223 yards and 4 touchdowns, while also rushing for a touchdown. Manning started against ULM and Mississippi State, and played pretty well. He’s thrown for 900 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 2 picks, while also rushing for 3 touchdowns. Although Manning played well, Steve Sarkisian would be out of his mind to continue to roll with Manning, which made a lot of people that for some reason bet on manning to win the Heisman mad. Just like this year, Ewers came back right before the Red River Rivalry in 2022. He ended up throwing for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns. Ewers once again has great wide receivers, as Isaiah Bond has caught 20 passes fir 364 yards and 3 touchdowns, so I think Ewers could have a similar performance.
• Bond is the headliner, but there is a deep cast of Texas wide receivers. When you’re as talented as Texas, you’re bound to have great wide receivers. Right behind Bond is Ryan Wingo, who has 11 catches for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns. He had 0 catches against Michigan just 2 for 8 yards against Mississippi State. Both QB’s have under utilized him, but he is just a freshman, so I can understand why they would want to find a more experienced receiver. Matthew Golden has caught 18 passes for 223 yards and 3 touchdowns, while Gunnar Helm is the leading tight end with 16 catches for 220 yards and a touchdown. Johntay Cook II and Deandre Moore Jr. both have 8 catches, while Cook ha 140 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Moore has 130 yards and 3 touchdowns. Going back to the movie analogy, Bond is the main character, and Wingo is his young, naive sidekick. Golden and Helm are both experienced and wise, and are finally getting their shot, while Cook and Moore are the supporting roles that still have an important part. Just like in a very complex movie, its hard for defenses to keep up with all of these players, and that’s led to Texas averaging 322.2 pass yards per game, third in the SEC.
• Texas’ defense is one of the best in the nation. The most points they’ve allowed in a game was 2 weeks ago to Mississippi State, which was 13. They only let Michigan score 12 on them, which has led to them allowing just 7 points per game. That’s second in the nation and first in the SEC. They’re also allowing 228.2 yards per game, third in the nation and second in the SEC. Texas has sacked opposing quarterbacks 13 times, and have picked them off 7 times. They force a world of hurt for opposing quarterbacks, and should do the same to Hawkins this week.
If Oklahoma had a better rushing game, or even a competent one, I think they could hang with Texas, and potentially upset them. However, they don’t, and Texas pulls away in the second half to win, 31-20. Although it’s a 2-score game, rivalry games like this are always fun.
5. (T-18) Kansas State @ Colorado – We’ve seen some real improvement from Colorado this season, and they can cement their changes with a big win Saturday night over a ranked K-State. Kansas State are coming off a bye week, which followed a big win over Oklahoma State. The Buffs also had a bye week last week, and that came after they upset UCF on the road. I’ll start with the Wildcats, however, and…
• Avery Johnson looked phenomenal in a win over Oklahoma State. Leading K-State to a 42-20 win, Johnson threw for 260 yards and had 5 total touchdowns, 3 through the ai rand 2 on the ground. His touchdown passes were 2, 19, and 55 yards, while his rushing touchdowns were 11 and 13 yards, so Johnson isn’t just a red zone merchant. Johnson flipped the game on its head in the second quarter, as after Oklahoma State went up 13-7, 2 plays later Johnson threw his 19-yard touchdown. That gave K-State the 1 score lead, and Kansas State didn’t let up any more point until under 2 minutes left. If Johnson keeps making plays like that, K-State can make serious noise in the Big 12, and Johnson could be in some Heisman talks later in his career. Johnson’s incredible game took his numbers up 879 passing yards, 9 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, while 321 rush yards and 2 touchdowns. Johnson really only struggled against BYU, which is also K-State’s only loss. He proved that he can look past those games the following week, and ball out.
• DJ Giddens has had a similar season like Avery Johnson’s. Giddens has great numbers, with 604 yards and 2 touchdowns on 83 carries. He’s added 8 catches, 91 yards, and a touchdown through the air. Just like Johnson, Giddens was coasting through the first 3 weeks, but then ran into trouble against BYU. Whenever you lose 38-9, you’re always going to have bad numbers. He had 19 carries for 93 yards, which is 4.9 yards per carry, and the worst he’s had so far. He’s averaging 7.3 yards per carry right now. Giddens also lost a fumble, which was returned by BYU for a touchdown that put the Cougars up 10-6. However, Giddens bounced back in a major way against Oklahoma State, putting up a season high 187 rushing yards. He ran 15 times, which is 12.5 yards per run, and also ran for a touchdown. He even got involved in the passing game, catching 1 pass that went for 22 yards. His touchdown was 66 yards, and that was a career high rush. If Giddens can keep this momentum up and turn it into consistency, K-State will win this game.
• For the most part, Kansas State’s defense was been great. I say for the most part because of the 38 points they allowed against BYU, but if we can overlook that, we can see that K-State is averaging 336 yards per game and 19.6 points per game. Those rank seventh and fourth in the Big 12. They forced 3 turnovers last week and pitched a shut out for 35 and a half minutes last week, going from the second to the late fourth quarter. Kansas State hasn’t been the best at forcing turnovers, as they have just 6 all season. They have sacked opposing quarterbacks 12 times, tied for the lead in their conference. Although Colorado has improved, their offensive line hasn’t, as Shedeur Snaders has been sacked 17 times so far. K-State should definitely be able to get after him this week.
• There are 2 big things that Colorado hasn’t improved on. I mentioned in the intro paragraph that Colorado has improved a lot, but 2 things that they haven’t improved on are their o-line, which I just mentioned, and their ground game. If you can’t keep your quarterback upright, how do you expect him to make good throws or to stay healthy? And when you’re throwing it as much as Colorado because they can’t run the ball, that’s a big deal. As for their problems on the ground game, Colorado has a tough time controlling the clock, and salting the game away. Shedeur Sanders has been sacked 17 times so far this season, including 8, yes 8, against Baylor. His 17 sacks are third most in the nation. On the ground, Colorado’s leading rusher is Isaiah Augustave, who has just 24 carries for 117 yards. Micah Welch has 23 carries for 113 yards and 3 touchdowns, while Dallen Hayden has 25 carries for 85 yards and a touchdown. We thought Hayden could’ve been the savior of Colorado’s rushing game, as he was promising during his time at Ohio State, but hasn’t performed in his 3 games this season. He did play against UCF, so he is healthy. Colorado is averaging just 80.6 rush yards per game, dead last in the Big 12. They’re also averaging 3 yards per carry, which is also dead last in the Big 12. Colorado’s rushing game has been abysmal this season, and I don’t see it getting any better against a good Kansas State defense.
• Shedeur Sanders has still been really, really good. With the number of times that Sanders has gone down, you would expect his numbers to suffer. However, that is quite the opposite. Sanders has thrown for 1,630 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Against Baylor, where he was sacked 8 times, Sanders threw for 341 yards and 2 touchdowns, including the Hail Mary game winner, on a 61% completion percentage. He even ran for 26 yards and a touchdown, being able to escape the rush well, and he had to do it a lot. The only part of Sanders’ game that he could change is his picks, as he’s matched the number of picks he threw last year. However, 3 picks through 5 games isn’t too bad, and he has Colorado winning. With great wide receivers like Travis Hunter, Jimmy Horn Jr., LaJohntay Wester, and Will Sheppard, Sanders should be able to keep rising up.
• Colorado’s defense has changed and improved. They’re still pretty bad, allowing 379.6 yards per game, fourth worst in the Big 12, and 23 points per game. The 23 points per game allowed is actually seventh, but outside of 1 game, which was against Colorado State, the points allowed have been a major problem. Against NDSU and Baylor, it created a close game. Against Nebraska, the Cornhuskers scored 28, and Colorado could not stop them in order to mount a comeback. Against UCF, they let the Knights hang around early, only separating after forcing turnovers. Speaking of forcing turnovers, Colorado has forced 9, with 4 of them being picks. Travis Hunter and Preston Hodge both have 2. Mind you, this is without Shilo Sanders, who's back this game. With the great play of Hunter and Hodge, and the return of Shilo Sanders, Colorado’s secondary should be all over the ball all game and force Avery Johnson into some uncomfortable situations.
Colorado’s lack of rushing game, while K-State’s great rushing game will be the difference, and Kansas State survives a trip to Boulder with a 35-30 win.
6. Washington @ Iowa – After an upset over Michigan at home last week, the Huskies once again have a cross-country matchup against a physical and run-heavy Big Ten team, and that tripped them up last time. Iowa is coming off a blowout loss to Ohio State, in which even the good parts of their offense were stuffed. They try to get back on track against Washington this week. I’ll start with the Hawkeyes as well, and…
• Kaleb Johnson couldn’t get anything going last week. Johnson was one of the best, yet underrated backs in the country coming into Iowa’s matchup against Ohio State, but the Buckeyes threw all of that aside, and shut him down. On his least number of carries since week 1, in which he barely played against Illinois State, Johnson managed just 86 yards. He ran the ball 15 times, which comes out to 5,7 yards per carry. That’s his worst YPC in a game so far this season. Johnson did get in the endzone, which is where 28 of his yards came from. Johnson has scored a touchdown in every game so far this season, but that was his first game with just 1 touchdown. Whenever your offense runs through one central point, like how Iowa’s offense runs through Johnson, elite defenses like Ohio State’s are going to be able to stop them They don’t need to worry about Cade McNamara and the rest of the passing game, they just need to worry about Johnson. Now that we have a blueprint of what defenses can do against Johnson, Washington and the rest of the teams on Iowa’s schedule are going to follow what Ohio State did. Now Iowa needs to adapt on offense, and it starts with…
• Iowa’s offense will need to adapt, especially Cade McNamara. McNamara has been playing college football since 2019, where he redshirted at Michigan. It’s taken him 6 years, 2 schools and countless missed passes for him too… not change. McNamara is the game manager of game managers, and that sentiment is even more true this year. He’s completed 64% of his passes for just 686 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 picks. McNamara has only thrown when Kirk Ferentz needs him too, and when that time comes, he hasn’t performed well. He threw for just under 100 yards and a pick in the loss to Ohio state. As you can see, McNamara isn’t moving the needle in either way, but if defenses do key in on Johnson even more, McNamara is going to have to move the needle positively, otherwise Iowa’s season will be in jeopardy.
• Will Rogers hasn’t slipped up so far this season. He’s thrown for 1,625 yards, 12 touchdowns, and just 1 pick on a 73.6% completion percentage. His only pick did come last week, but he still threw for 271 yards and 2 touchdowns while leading Washington to an upset win over the Wolverines. Rogers hasn’t even sniffed a bad game so far, something that did not happen a lot last year at Mississippi State. Rogers has nearly identical numbers to his 2023 marks, but in significantly less games and by completing a lot more of his passes. Rogers threw for 1,626 yards, 12 touchdowns, 4 picks last year in 8 games. Rogers has turned around very quickly, and now is leading Washington in the second group of Big 10 teams. Definitely not as good as Washington’s receiving corps last year, the Huskies receivers this season have still be efficient. Denzel Boston has caught 35 passes for 492 yards and 8 touchdowns, which are second in the nation, while Giles Jackson has caught 38 passes, going for 480 yards and 2 touchdowns.
• Can Washington’s defense stop Kaleb Johnson? Michigan and Iowa are very similar teams. Both have very questionable QB play, but a great ground game Washington sparred off with Michigan last week, and in the 27-17 win, UDub held Michigan to just 174 rush yards on 37 rushes, which is 4.7 yards per rush. Although they bottled up the unit, they still allowed Donovan Edwards to run for 95 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries. Michigan does have a talented duo of backs, something that Iowa does not have. Washington shut down one half of the Michigan duo, so if they can just channel all of that energy into stopping Johnson, they’ll be able to hold him down. Washington has allowed 130.5 rush yards per game, which is 8th worst in the Big Ten. However, let me list off some of the players the Washington defense has to stop on the ground. The list includes: John Mateer, Kyle Monangai, Donovan Edwards, and Kalel Mullings. On top of that, they had to face off against Damon Bankston, who has the 11th most rushing yards in the FCS. Washington has had to face a lot of tough rushers, and they’ve done a pretty good job at stopping them
I don’t see that changing this week, and Washington wins, 28-20.
7. (16) Utah @ Arizona State – Utah has a had a whole bye week to not only reflect and improve after their upset loss to Arizona, but also to get healthy. However, Cam Rising is still week-to-week. Such a shocker. As for ASU, they’ve been flying under the radar so far this season, and just went up to 4-1 with a last second win over Kansas. They’ve quietly been playing some of the best ball in the country, and no embodies that more than…
• Cam Skattebo has been great so far this season. He’s been the main reason why ASU is 4-1, and that’s because he’s been doing it both on the ground and through the air. He’s ran for 615 yards and 6 touchdowns on 111 carries, while catching 15 passes for 210 yards. He’s had 2 monster games on the ground so far this season, rushing 33 times for 262 yards against Mississippi State and then rushing for 182 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries last week against Kansas. Through the air, he caught 6 passes for 117 yards in a loss to Texas Tech. Skattebo quietly has the 6th most rushing yards in the nation, mainly because of those 2 big games against Mississippi State and Kansas. Utah has one of the best rush defenses in the Big 12, however, so it will be an uphill climb for Skattebo this week. Regardless, Skattebo has ASU winning games. If the Sun Devils can get a big game out of him this week, ASU could make some serious noise.
• Sam Leavitt is one of the best freshman quarterbacks in the nation. Although he’s not on the same level as Dylan Raiola or Nico Iamaleava, Leavitt has still been really good this season. He’s thrown for 1,012 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 3 picks, while rushing for 257 yards and 4 touchdowns. Leavitt has thrown a pick in 3 straight games, but also 5 touchdowns to go along with it. 4 of those came in the win over Kansas. Leavitt hasn’t had to do much because of Skattebo, but his play has still looked good. ASU is a very vanilla team, with a great ground game and an average passing game, but if Leavitt can step it up, even just by a bit, ASU will become one of the best teams in the Big 12.
• Micah Bernard was finally stopped against Arizona. After 3 straight weeks with over 115 yards, the Arizona defense kept him down to just 91 yards on 16 carries, which is 5.7 yards per rush. That’s the worst YPC he’s had so far this year. Now, we probably should’ve seen this coming. He fumbled twice against Oklahoma State, but still ran for over 180 yards. However, he had 9 more carries in that game than he did against Arizona. With 9 less carries, he had half the number of yards he did against Oklahoma State. Bernard has run for 547 yards and just 1 touchdown on 82 carries. Hopefully he can get back on track this week, but ASU does have a pretty good ground game, allowing just 96 rush yards per game.
• Utah’s defense was lifeless against Arizona. Coming into that game, Arizona was coming off a 31-7 loss to Kansas State. They were horrible on offense and defense, and it seemed like that bug was passed onto Utah in that game. I’ll keep it brief on the offensive side, but Utah didn’t score a touchdown until the fourth quarter. As for the defense, Utah allowed 23 points and 358 yards, while forcing just 1 turnover. Utah’s offense held the ball for 32 minutes as well, so the Utah defense really struggled. They did alright on third downs, holding the Wildcats to going 4-13, but when you go 0-4 yourself on fourth downs, those first downs and third down conversions start to pile up. Utah is going to need to change that in a big way this week, as ASU completes 45% of their third downs. If the Utes can’t get a crucial stop, their season will have a tough, but fast fall from grace.
I do think Utah can get back on track this week, as they win, 31-24.
8. Louisville @ Virginia – Although they’ve lost 2 straight and now have to go on the road, Louisville has a really good opportunity to turn it around this week, taking on Virginia. The Cavaliers are 4-1, yes, but their best win game against a still injured Boston College. They’ll try to get a quality win this week over Louisville. I’ll start with the Cardinals, however, and…
• Tyler Shough has still been great. Shough has thrown for 1,443 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Both of his interceptions came in Louisville’s 2 losses, 1 in each game. He was also sacked 3 times in both games after being sacked just once prior. Shough’s potential best game this season came last week in a loss to SMU, as he threw for 330 yards and 2 touchdowns, including an 86-yard touchdown, on a 63% completion percentage. He started a comeback for Louisville, but ultimately fell short. Shough’s numbers obviously still look good, and if he can keep playing like that, Louisville should have this slump turned around. Hopefully he can, but these losses have not been Shough’s fault.
• Louisville’s defense has had a problem forcing turnovers. Although they’ve allowed just 313.4 yards per game and 19.6 points per game, fourth and sixth in the ACC, they forced just 6 turnovers. Out of those turnovers, only 2 of them are picks. None of the turnovers have turned into a touchdown either. In both of Louisville’s losses, they’ve forced a combined 2 turnovers, both of them against Notre Dame. They were both fumbles as well, but Virginia doesn’t run as much as Notre Dame. There’s going to be less opportunities for Louisville to force fumbles against Virginia, but they really need to get more turnovers. Louisville has controlled the clock pretty well so far this season, holding the ball on average for 32 minutes and 20 seconds. If they could force more turnovers, that number could sky rocket, and that would take the offense’s numbers up as well. These games would flip in Louisville’s favor, and all they have to do is get turnovers.
• What a comeback by Virginia last week. Down 14-0 with just under 5 minutes left in the second quarter, Virginia played a perfect game from there on out. They started off with a field goal, then forced a punt ad kicked another field goal. They went into the half down 14-6, but with a lot of momentum. BC punted on their first drive of the second half, and Virginia then drove down the Boston College 2. However, they stalled out on fourth down, and didn’t score any points. That ended a 15-play, 81-yards, and 7 minutes and 42-second-long drive. Virginia then forced a punt, and kicked once again another field goal. They then picked of Thomas Castellanos, and 2 plays later punched it in for the game-leading touchdown. On Boston College’s next drive, Virginia forced a fumble free, and returned it 40 yards for a touchdown. The last 6 minutes of the game were sloppy, as BC couldn’t complete a fourth down, Virginia missed a field goal, and then BC threw another pick, icing the game for Virginia. That comeback showed that no matter how much time is left in the game, or how bad they’re losing, they’re not going to give up. They’re going to need to remember that this week, mainly because of how well Louisville controls the clock. If they find themselves in a similar situation as last week, they’re going to need to score even faster this time.
• Anthony Colandrea has been good thus far; he needs to be great this week. Colandrea has thrown for 1211 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions so far this season. He’s added 160 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground. Colandrea hasn’t been a game manager, but he has just played averagely. He has pretty good wide receivers, namely Malachi Fields, who's caught 28 passes for 412 yards and 3 touchdowns. Colandrea is going to have to find Fields a lot this game – he's had 4 catches in 3 straight games – in order to take down Louisville.
Something similar happens this game that happened last week for Virginia, but Louisville hangs on to win, 34-26.
9. Florida @ (8) Tennessee – Don’t look now, but Florida has potentially turned their season around. They can confirm my take if they upset their rival, the reeling Tennessee Volunteers. It may not be the Third Saturday in September, but it will still deliver like one. I’ll start with Tennessee, and they couldn’t get anything going on…
• Tennessee couldn’t get anything going on offense last week. Tennessee’s offense was one of the best in the country coming into the Arkansas game, leading the FBS in points per game. However, they were held to just 14, both of which were 4-yard runs from Dylan Sampson. On top of that, Tennessee just gained 332 yards and 16 first downs, and held the ball for just 24 and a half minutes. Nico Iamaleava threw for just 160 yards, by far his lowest of the season. He was sacked 4 times as well, and had the worst completion percentage of his season, which was 58.6%. He also fumbled the ball once, but Tennessee luckily recovered. The Vols leading receiver was Donte Thornton Jr., who had just 1 catch for 42 yards. Dylan Sampson did have a good game, rushing 22 times for 140 yards and 2 touchdowns. For a team averaging 519 yards per game and 46 points per game, both fifth in the nation, that was a horrible performance. Florida’s defense isn’t the best, so there is hope that they can turn it around this week.
• The Vols defense has proved that they can play well. Their defense was an afterthought coming into the Oklahoma game. All eyes were on the offense, but then the defense were the standouts against OU. They allowed just 222 total yards and forced 3 turnovers, and 15 points, the lowest of Oklahoma’s season. The defense played alright against Arkansas, allowing 19 points, but 431 yards and 23 first downs. Because the offense had a tough time moving the ball and staying on the field, the Vols’ defense was on the field for 35 and a half minutes. They got easily tired, let go late in the fourth, where they allowed the game winning touchdown. Like most of the teams in the SEC, Florida’s offense is really good, so the Tennessee defense needs to play like they were earlier in the season. Otherwise, the Vols will fall to 4-2.
• The 2-Quarterback system keeps working. After a bad performance out of both Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway against Texas A&M, both quarterbacks were great against Mississippi State. They went a combined 26/28 for 277 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 45-28 win. Mertz played most of the game, and tossed 3 touchdowns, while Lagway didn’t have and incompletion and led Florida on some long, clock-draining touchdown drives. On the ground, Mertz ran for 24 yards and a touchdown, while Lagway had 22 yards. They kept the good play between them going into their next game, as the QBs combined for 229 yards and a touchdown on 23/27 passing. They both had 11 rushing yards. On the year, Lagway has thrown for 667 yards, 4 touchdowns and 3 picks on a 69% completion percentage, while Mertz has thrown for 666 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 2 picks on a 77% completion percentage. Billy Napier is continuing with the 2-QB system, which has produced a 2-1 record, and established new found confidence back into this team.
• Florida’s defense has been rejuvenated. UCF has been a great rushing team all season, but the UF defense allowed just 108 yards and forced a 2.7 yards per carry last week, leading to their dominant defensive performance and a 24-13 win. Florida allowed just 273 yards and 13 points, both of which were bests for the Florida defense outside of the game against FCS Samford. The Gators also picked off KJ Jefferson, which sealed the game in Florida’s favor. The Gators forced UCF to go 4-12 on third downs and 0-2 on fourth downs, which led to the Knights being on the field for just 27 minutes and 45 seconds. If Florida’s defense can keep this rolling, they’ll be able to upset Tennessee.
The UF offense should continue what they were doing, but the Vols offense gets back on track and leads Tennessee to a 35-28 win.
10. Georgia Tech @ North Carolina – North Caolina has lost 3 straight, but now have a great chance to rebound against Georgia Tech, who just ended Duke’s undefeated season. The Yellow Jackets are at 4-2, and proved my theory about them wrong in the win. I’ll start with the Tar Heels, however, and…
• Jacolby Criswell, despite his record, has still played well. In games where Criswell has started, he’s gone 1-3, which included a blown lead against Duke. He played pretty well in that game specifically, throwing for 250 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 pick. He did complete just 54% of his passes, which has been the major reason why UNC has lost. However, Criswell has been making the right throws for most of the game, which is why he’s been able to keep North Carolina in them. With Max Johnson out for the season and Conner Harrell being more of a rushing QB, Criswell is UNC’s only option if they want to not only stay in games, but potentially win them. Criswell has completed just 56.4% of his passes so far this year, but still has thrown for 1,158 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 3 picks. He didn’t throw a pick last week, but did have his worst completion percentage in a game at 53.3%. If Criswell can string together some valuable completions in close moments of this game, UNC can win.
• Omarion Hampton has been unable to be stopped. He’s had 4 straight games with over 100 rushing yards, and has another game with over 100 rushing yards. Add on 16 catches for 123 yards, and Hampton has become one of the best backs in college football. He’s ran for 764 yards and 7 touchdowns om 137 carries, leading the country in carries and the ACC in yards. Hampton ran 23 times, gaining 106 yards and scoring once. He added 3 catches for 16 yards. After a 3.6 YPC against Duke, Hampton took that number up to 4.6 against Pitt. GT might just have the best rushing defense in the ACC, so it will be a true battle for Hampton, but one that he can definitely overcome.
• The Yellow Jackets were phenomenal on the ground against Duke. GT has been a rushing team all season, and that was never more evident than against Duke. Georgia Tech ran 49 times, more than double the amount of times Duke ran it, for 245 yards and a touchdown. They averaged 5 yards per carry as well. Jamal Haynes led the way with 130 yards on 19 carries, by far his best game this season. Haynes added 12 yards and a touchdown through the air, which added to his great game. Chad Alexander backed Haynes up, with 10 carries for 60 yards. Haynes King had 30 yards as well, and Zach Pyron had GT’s only rushing touchdown of the game. GT’s dominant ground game led to them controlling the clock for 39 and a half minutes, which is a major reason why they won, and held Duke to just 280 yards and 14 points. If they can do something similar again this week, they’ll win again.
• Haynes King has been putting together a fantastic season. King showed a lot of flashes of potential last year, but he was throwing too many picks and being sacked way too much to be playing up to his potential. However, that completely changed this year, as he’s thrown 1 pick and has been sacked just once. He’s thrown for 1,441 yards, 8 touchdowns, and the previously mentioned pick so far this season. His completion percentage also jumped up from 61,6% last year to 74% this year He’s ran for 246 yards and 4 touchdowns as well. King’s only pick came all the way against Geogia Tech, which was in week 1. He tossed 2 touchdowns in the win last week. King will be able to build on this momentum from last week into this week, and have another good game, if his season pattern continues.
GT’s offense rolls once again, and Georgia Tech wins, 27-18.
11. South Carolina @ (7) Alabama – After a historic upset loss to Vandy, Alabama now needs to play top tier ball in order to make it to Atlanta. Bama can still hang their head over the Georgia win, but we’ve now seen 2 different sides of the Crimson Tide, and we don’t know which one we are going to get every week. As for SC, they dropped another conference game last week to Ole Miss, and they really need this win.
• LaNorris Sellers will be a true 100% this week. Whenever a coach or player is speaking about a potential return to action after an injury, the common saying is that they’re 100% ready to go. And that part is true, that they’re ready to go, but they are pretty much never 100% healthy. Think of Cam Rising or Jalon Daniels in years prior. LaNorris Sellers was in that position last week, and if you watched SC’s game, you could see that he was not 100%. Sellers went 20/32 for just 162 yards and a pick, and took off about 9 times for 55 yards. Maybe him being sacked 6 times had a role in his bad play, but you never know. All jokes aside, the only way Sellers is going to survive back there, especially this week, is if SC can keep Sellers standing up. Like I said, Sellers will truly be 100% healthy this week, and that should show some improvement, but the SC o-line is very bad and the Alabama d-line is very good.
• The South Carolina defense had a miserable day last week. Ole Miss’s offense is one of the best in the country, I’ll give SC’s defense that, but when you have Alabama on the schedule, you need to play better. The Gamecocks allowed 425 yards and 27 minutes last week in just under 27 and a half minutes. SC allowed 2 big touchdown runs from Ole Miss defensive lineman JJ Pegues, which is pretty hard to stop, but Alabama is ready to throw everything and the kitchen sink at SC to get back in the win collum.
• Alabama’s offense has to stay on the field. The major reason why Alabama lost last week to Vanderbilt has because their Heisman candidate quarterback and all-around talented offense could not stay on the field. The offense controlled the ball for just under 18 minutes, which obviously can’t happen again this week, otherwise Alabama will lose again. The Crimson tide had just 6 third down attempts the entire game, which is by far the lowest I’ve ever seen. Alabama completed half of them, on went on to complete a fourth down after failing a third down. On the other side of the ball, Vanderbilt had 18 third down conversion attempts, and completed 12 of them. Bama couldn’t stay on the field because they couldn’t get off the field. That should change this week, as SC completes just 30% of their third downs. The fact that Jalen Milroe still got off great stats is honestly impressive, because even when his team isn’t performing up to their standards, Milroe is.
• The same thing for Milroe is true for Ryan Williams. He’s now scored a touchdown in every one of his games, and scored 2 touchdowns for the first time since week 1. Williams had a receiving touchdown and a rushing touchdown. He caught 3 of Milroe’s passes for 82 yards and the touchdown, along with the aforementioned rushing touchdown. Milroe looks Williams’ way a lot, but the most catches he has is just 6, which came against Georgia. On the year, Williams has caught 19 passes for 544 yards and 6 touchdowns. Out of the top 15 receivers in the SEC, only 2 of them have less catches than Williams, and one of them is a WR2. No one is doing what Williams is doing with the amount of catches he’s getting, and with the growing eyes from defenses on him, it’s truly impressive.
Alabama should be able to get back on track, but so should SC. They’ll improve, but won’t knock off Alabama on the road. Bama wins, 30-17.
12. Wisconsin @ Rutgers – Wisconsin has been ravaged by injuries, but bounce back last week after 2 straight loses to destroy Purdue. They now take on Rutgers, who dropped their first game last week. I’ll start with the Scarlet Knights as well.
• Rutgers, who's been great on the ground all year, couldn’t do anything last week. Coming into the Nebraska game, Rutgers ran for 184 yards in a win over Washington. We all expected Rutgers to keep on running the ball, and run it well against Nebraska. Well, they did part of that. Rutgers ran 32 times, which should’ve given them an edge, but Nebraska held Rutgers to just 78 yards. That’s 2.4 YPC, by far their worst of the season. Kyle Monangai, who’s been a beast for Rutgers all season long, had all of the rushing yards, which was once again 78. Samuel Brown V added 12 yards, but Atha Kaliakmanis was sacked enough times to account for -12 yards. Rutgers is usually dominant in TOP, but that was the opposite against Nebraska. Rutgers held the ball for 28 minutes and 25 seconds, and their TOP has been a big reason why the Scarlet Knights have won games in the past. However, they couldn’t control the clock, and ultimately fell. Not only is the Rutger defense going to have to get off the field, but Kyle Monangai and the rest of the Rutgers running backs are going to have to do better.
• We saw classic Athan Kaliakmanis last week. Usually when you talk about someone’s classic form coming back, that means that they made a comeback to their prime. However, that’s the exact opposite for Athan Kaliakmanis. He was worse than a game manager during his time at Minnesota, especially last year. Kaliakmanis was off to a good start this season, as he threw just 1 pick, completed 61.4% of his passes, and even had 2 games with 230 or more passing yards. He had just 1 of those games last year, threw 9 picks, and completed just 53% of his passes as well. His numbers tailed off a bit against Washington, but I thought he could bounce back against Nebraska. That obviously didn’t happen, as Kaliakmanis completed just 40.5% of his passes, threw 2 picks, and had 186 passing yards. He did throw a touchdown, and should’ve had another if his receiver caught a wide-open pass right in front of the endzone. If Kaliakmanis keeps playing like this again, which he has a good chance of doing, Rutgers will drop another game.
• Wisconsin stomped out Purdue last week. Maybe they were frustrated by their second half breakdown to USC, or just really wanted to win 18 straight over Purdue, and Wisco did not hold back. They put up 52 points, Bradyn Locke threw for 360 yards and 3 touchdowns, Tawee Walker ran for 3 touchdowns, and Wisconsin gained 590 total yards. It was domination on both sides of the ball as well, as the Badgers’ defense allowed 6 points and 216 yards, forced 2 turnovers, and let up just 1 successful third down conversion attempt on 11 tries from the Boilermakers. Wisconsin had 2 turnovers themselves, and that was the only way Purdue scored points, as the Wisco defense did a really good job at holding Purdue on a short field. There’s no shot Wisconsin is going to be able to do something like that every week, and with a solid defense from Rutgers on the other side, I positive that it won’t happen this week. However, any momentum is good momentum, and Wisco should start this game off hot.
• With no Chez Mellusi, Tawee Walker will have to step up. Mellusi’s career has been nothing short of amazing, especially with all of the injuries he has had to overcome. Because of these injuries, Mellusi took an indefinite leave before the Purdue game, which pushed Walker into the starting spot. He played very well, rushing 19 times for 94 yards and 3 touchdowns, but it was against a very bad Purdue defense. Walker has run 57 times this year for 241 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 5 of his touchdowns coming in Wisconsin’s last 2 games. For someone who was thrust into the starting spot just over a week ago and now has to go up against a quality defense, he’s going to struggle. However, Wisconsin is going to call on him a lot in order to wind the clock and keep the ball out of Kyle Monangai’s hand, and a subpar Walker performance will hand Rutgers the win.
I do think Wisconsin can get it done on the ground, and win in Piscataway, 24-13.
13. Arizona @ (14) BYU – After an upset over Utah, Arizona had a let down game against Texas Tech, and now need another road upset win in order to stay alive in the Big 12. As for BYU, they have one of the best chances to win the Big 12, but still need to go through Arizona before they can even secure a bowl appearance. I’ll start with them too, and…
• Jake Retzlaff is doing everything on offense. He’s been BYU’s leading passer, obviously, and also their leading rusher. He’s thrown for 1,208 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 5 picks, while also rushing for 156 yards and a touchdown. His only rushing touchdown came last week, and his scrambling ability kept him from being sacked once. They almost made up for his 2 picks, but those picks were at key moments in the game, and gave Baylor light when they were down. Maybe if the interceptions happened earlier in the game, but they didn’t. Retzlaff still threw for 218 yards and 3 touchdowns. Retzlaff ability to throw and run has led BYU to their 5-0 start, but Retzlaff…
• Jake Retzlaff can’t do everything on offense. Yes, its worked so far, but the toughest team BYU has had to play is Kansas State, and outside of the edge of the game being at home and late at night, the defense carried BYU to the win. They forced 3 turnovers, and Retzlaff threw for just 150 yards. But as BYU’s schedule gets tougher, including road games at UCF, Utah, and Arizona State, all of which are looking like they could cause some trouble, BYU is going to need to beef up the offense, specifically the rushing game. Like I said, Retzlaff is the Cougars leading rusher, with just 156 yards. He’s the only player on BYU with over 100 rushing yards, as Enoch Nawahine is right under 100 yards, but he has 98. He’s added a touchdown on 29 carries. Somehow, someway, BYU is only averaging 138.8 rush yards per game, which is only fifth worst in the Big 12. They’ve been able to do it because some many backs get around 15 to 40 yards per game, but the Cougars are going to need someone to truly break through and lead the ground game. If Arizona cause trouble for Retzlaff, or something worse like an injury happens, BYU’s offense is going to be out of luck.
• Noah Fifita should remain the starting quarterback, but his play has not been one of. I wrote this before an Arizoa game earlier this season, but the Noah Fifita magic has basically worn off. He had a lot of really good pass catchers last year, but with most of them leaving, along with the departure of Jedd Fisch and Brennan Carroll, it’s taken Fifita a long time to get situated and comfortable in the new scheme at Arizona. They went from running a pro-style under Fisch last year to a veer and shoot this year, which is a switch that Fifita has clearly not been ready for. He’s thrown for 1,361 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 6 picks, already surpassing his interception numbers from last year. Fifita threw 2 picks in Arizona’s loss last week, and completed just 57% of his passes, the worst of season. Now, Fifita still needs to be the starting quarterback, there’s no one else on Arizona that could fill his role, but the way not only Fifita, but Dino Babers is going about it is a little wrong. If the scheme could integrate parts of the scheme from last year that Fifita excelled in, there’s no doubt Fifita and the offense would take it up a notch.
• Arizona got beat badly by TTU’s main back last week, but luckily BYU doesn’t have one. Although the Arizona defense played really well against Texas Tech, they let Tahj Brooks run for 130 yards and 3 touchdowns on just 21 yards, and put the game away with a 32-yard touchdown run. Brooks has been doing this all year, so its no surprise that Arizona couldn’t stop him. That would’ve been a problem for the Arizona defense again, if not for the fact that BYU doesn’t have a back like Brooks. The Zona rush defense allows just 147 rush yards per game, and they’re going to need another big performance this week. Although they don’t have a dominant back, the number of backs on BYU getting carries is a lot, so the Zona defense is still going to have to bring their A-game.
Arizona should put up a fight, but their offense isn’t good enough to beat a great BYU defense, and the Cougars win, 34-17.
14. (T-11) Iowa State @ West Virginia – With one of the best chances to make the CFP, Iowa State needs to take care of business first against West Virginia. As for WVU, they’re 3-2, coming off a blowout win over Oklahoma State. I’ll start with them, and…
• Garrett Greene didn’t do much of anything last week, and WVU still blew out OK State. Although WVU is a primarily a rushing team, averaging 223 rush yards per game compared to 216.6 pass yards per game, Garrett Greene has been the major power player for WVU’s offense. He is the quarterback, yes, but he can also run the ball very well, so that’s why he’s been so essential to the WVU offense. However, Greene took much more of a back seat against Oklahoma State, only throwing 15 passes, completing 9 of them. They went for 160 yards, and Greene had no touchdowns or picks. On the ground, Greene managed to get 86 yards and a touchdown on about 9 carries. For a quarterback as good as Greene has been, you’d have expected WVU to get blown out in this game. However, that was quite the opposite, as the Mountaineers won, 38-14. The offense gained 558 total yards and 31 first downs, while Jahiem White led the way on the ground with 19 carries for 160 yards and a touchdown. Greene did get injured late into the game, but it didn’t have much of an impact and Greene will be out there playing in this game. The matchup against Oklahoma State didn’t just show us that West Virginia has insane depth, it showed that if given the right opponent, they won’t even need to use their stellar rushing game. However, that’ll be very tough this week, as…
• Iowa State has one of the best defenses in the country. All they aren’t ranked very highly in the nation, don’t be fooled. They’re allowing just 10 points per game and 271.6 yards per game, both leading the Big 12. One thing Matt Campbell has done really well at Iowa State is leading his defense, and that trend has clearly continued over into this year. Their defense was a big reason why the Cyclones came back in the Iowa game, and are 5-0. Although they have just 9 sacks, they’ve came away with 11 turnovers, 8 of them being picks. By forcing turnovers out of other teams and then shutting down the passing game, Iowa State is in the drivers’ seat in the Big 12. They’ll have a very tough task in these upcoming weeks, taking on WVU this week and Texas Tech in the first weekend of November. If they can get through that, ISU can easily make the CFP.
• West Virginia’s defense has not been so hot, although they are warming up. The WVU defense started their season off in a turmoil-filled way, letting up 34 points to Penn State and 38 to Pitt. Things didn’t get much better after those 2 losses, as they couldn’t get of the field in the Kansas game, but needed a clutch Garrett Greene touchdown to win. However, the defense brought their A-game against Oklahoma State. They held the Pokes to just 14 points and forced 2 turnovers, along with allowing 227 yards and 111 first downs. You know how I said they had a tough time getting off the field against Kansas? Well, that was quite the opposite. OK State went 3-10 on third downs, while West Virginia went 9-15. Because the offense could stay on the field and the defense could get off WVU held the ball for nearly 43 minutes, which helped the defense allow such few points. I thought Ollie Gordon II was going to be a problem this game, but the WVU defense allowed just 50 yards out of him, and allowed a 1.7 YPC. Maybe they played well because of how bad ok state is turning out to be, but I truly think they did just improve. If the WVU defense can bring this consistency and momentum into this game, they can upset ISU.
• The Iowa State offense might be one of the most boring offenses to watch this year. They are doing very well, averaging 427.8 yards per game and 31.2 points per game, which would be at the top of every conference other than the Big 12. They had a pretty big performance last week against Baylor, putting up 43 points and 542 yards. Rocco Becht had another average performance, throwing for 277 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a pick. He hasn’t done much to wow me this season, as he’s thrown for 1,173 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 3 picks. Sometimes quarterbacks with similar numbers to Becht can add something on the ground, but he hasn’t. Iowa State has a pretty good ground game, consisting of Jaylon Jackson, Abu Sama III, and Carson Hansen. They all have 40-something carries and rushing yards anywhere from 211 to 295. Jackson and Hansen both have 2 touchdowns, Sama has 1. Just like Becht, they aren’t doing anything to exciting, and with the fact that none of them have broken away from the pack it doesn’t add any intrigue or wrinkles for opposing defenses to plan for. The same is pretty much said for the receivers, Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins. These guys seem to be the only ones Becht is throwing to, as Noel has 24 catches and Higgins has 33. They’re averaging 18.8 and 12.2 yards per catch, respectively, so they are making pretty good work out of the catches. Someone on this Iowa State offense is going to have do something, because what if the defense can’t hold up with a team like Texas Tech? Matt Campbell could see something like that happen this week, and he’s got to be ready for it.
Ultimately, I think the Iowa State defense can force enough mistakes out of Garrett Greene, but the WVU defense does look fairly well. ISU wins, 24-14.
15. Vanderbilt @ Kentucky – After a historic upset over the first ranked Alabama Crimson Tide, Vanderbilt sifts their focus to a road game against Kentucky, who almost upset another big dog, or should I say Dawg, earlier this season.
• I don’t agree with everything Diego Pavia said, but his game sure is legit. Obviously, a lot of eyes are going to be on Vandy after the Alabama upset, and Pavia took that opportunity. When asked about Vandy’s season, he said that they are just 8 points away from being 5-0. Although that is true, they’re also 12 points away from being 1-4. Also, Vanderbilt lost to Georgia State, so I’m also going to have that game in the back of mind. Pavia, however, has been playing like his team us 5-0. The best part about his season is that he hasn’t had a single turnover yet, and Vandy in general has just 1 turnover. That came against Georgia State as well. Back to Pavia, he’s thrown for 973 yards and 8 touchdowns, while also being the Commodores’ leading rusher, with 335 yards and 2 touchdowns. He does use a lot of carries, as he has one of the worst YPC for a quarterback that actually runs this season, sitting at 3.7. However, he was Vandy winning and rolling, so why can’t he do that again this week? Kentucky’s defense has been really good this season, so that could pose a real problem for Pavia. However, because he beat Bama, there’s a likely chance he can beat Kentucky too.
• Vandy’s defense is still one of the worst in the SEC, however. One motto for college football that I like to use is “One win doesn’t fix everything”, and we can see that with the Vanderbilt defense. Everyone is clamoring over Diego Pavia and the Vanderbilt offense, but the defense was pretty beat down upon last week. Obviously, they were playing Bama, so its going to be tough, but a bad defense doesn’t just get magically better overnight with a win. They allowed 394 yards and 35 points in just 18 minutes of Alabama having the ball, and if not for 2 key turnovers, one of which had an insane amount of luck, I don’t see Vandy winning. Another way I could see Vanderbilt losing the game because of their defense is if Vanderbilt wasn’t on the field so much, while Bama was on it more, there’s a pretty high chance that Alabama wins that football game. The Vanderbilt defense is allowing 346 yards per game and 25.6 points per game, fourth and second worst in the SEC. They do luck out a little because Kentucky has one of the worst offenses in the conference, but not for games down the line. The Vandy defense is going to have to get right before then, and it all starts this week.
• Brock Vandagriff has put that horrible South Carolina game behind him. Vandagriff, formerly at Georgia, started his season off with a great game, throwing for 3 touchdowns. However, they were playing Southern Miss, not exactly the best competition. He then had the worst game of his life against South Carolina, going 3/10 for 30 yards and a pick, being sacked 4 times, and having a passer rating for 35.2. He got pulled for Gavin Wimsatt, and it was an all-around bad performance. Mind you, he is a former 5-star recruit that played at Georgia. He played a bit better against Georgia, but still had a pretty bad day. He threw for 114 yards on a 52% completion percentage, and was sacked 3 times. He got a lot better against Ohio, going 17/24 for 237 yards, and played excellent against Ole Miss, throwing for 243 yards and a touchdown. That means Vandagriff has thrown for 793 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 2 picks so far this year. If he can keep playing this well, Kentucky can win. What his bounce back has shown me, however is that Vandagriff has a shorth memory and can turn it around quick, and that’s going to be key in this game.
• Kentucky’s defense has bee scary good. When you first looked at Kentucky’s early schedule, you probably expected them to let up a lot of points, just like I did. However, that was quite the opposite. They did allow 31 points to SC, but 12 to Georgia and just 17 to Ole Miss. On the year, they’re allowing 13.4 points per game and 244.2 yards per game, fourth and third best in the SEC. Like I said, they had2 really good games against Georgia and Ole Miss, two of the better offenses in the conference. If they can keep the defense’s momentum from the Ole Miss game, which came before their bye week, into this one, they can win.
Vanderbilt has a lot of momentum, but I just can’t overlook their defense, and Kentucky wins, 31-14.
16. Cal @ (22) Pitt – Pitt’s one of the quieter undefeated teams this season, but its not because they beat up on bad teams. In fact, they’ve taken down Cincy and West Virginia, both are off too pretty good starts, and UNC, where they never have won before last week. As for Cal, they’re coming off of 2 close losses, one against Florida State, and one against Miami. Its seeming like they play up to better competition and down to worser, which could really bite them in their butt this week. I’ll start with Pitt, however, and…
• Eli Holstein could emerge as a Heisman candidate. He’s not one right now, which is pretty insane considering his stat line. Holstein has thrown for 1,564 yards, 15 touchdowns, and just 3 picks, while rushing for 265 yards and 3 touchdowns, making him not only one of then best quarterbacks in the ACC, but in the nation. However, he isn’t being talked about as a Heisman candidate (outside of here) because Pitt is, well, Pitt. Although in a big TV market and a power conference, Pitt doesn’t get a big media attention. However, Holstein knows what the spot like is like, he was formerly at Alabama, so the absence of the major media presence is probably a nice touch. If Pitt keeps winning, however, Holstein could soot up the Heisman boards, just like Kenny Pickett did in 2021. Holstein has a great WR1, as Desmon Reid has caught 62 passes so far this year. He can run very well on the ground as well, so that’s give him another edge. I do think that if Pitt wins, Holstein will have a lot more eyes on him.
• One of the biggest choke jobs in history happened, all because Cal couldn’t run. Up 35-10 over 8th ranked Miami in the third quarter, Cal looked set to win. ESPN gave them a 98% chance to win the game, an you know what happened? Cal lost the game. They played very well through the air as Fernando Mendoza threw for 285 yards and 2 touchdowns. On the ground, it was a much different story. Johnathan Brady was the leading rusher, and he had just 20 yards. He did it on just 1 carry as well. 2 more players had 20 yards, those being Mendoza and Jaivian Thomas. Thomas had 7 carries, while Mendoza had about 4. Chandler Rogers had 11 yards and a touchdown, while Jaydn Ott had just 7 carries for 2 yards and a touchdown. Ott did make a name for him through the air, catching 3 passes for 75 yards and a touchdown. As a unit, Cal had 73 yards on 25 carries, which is 2.9 YPC. That led to Cal holding the ball for 22 minutes and 25 seconds, and a major reason why they lost. They’re going to have a to a much better job this week in order to control the clock, and are going to have to use Jaydn Ott a lot more.
Eli Holstein leads Pitt to a big win, 35-13.
17. Cincy @ UCF – Unfortunately, this game is too good to be considered a Big 12 Mid Game of the Week in my eyes, and with so many teams in the conference on a bye, there will not be one this week. Both teams lost their last Big 12 game, and UCF has even dropped 2 straight. I’ll start with Cincy first, and Brendan Sorsby…
• Brendan Sorsby needs to keep on rolling. He’s done it through the air and on the ground, which has been a reason why Cincy has had such a good season. Although they are 3-2, they’ve lost their games by a combined 4 points. He’s thrown for 1,481 yards, 12 touchdowns, and just 1 pick, while rushing for 3 touchdowns. By far his best game came 2 weeks ago against Texas Tech, when he threw for 426 yards, 4 touchdowns, and ran for 52 yards. His first pick did come in that game, but he led Cincy to 41 points. If he can keep this up this week, Cincy will get bac in the win collum.
• What’s up with the UCF run game? It was very strong through UCF’s first 3 games, but hasn’t been in their last 2. Looking back, UCF didn’t have the best competition, so the success of the rushing game probably came based off that. RJ Harvey had 448 through his first 3 weeks, and was way up there in the national rankings. However, he's had just 152 yards in his past 2 games. He had 77 against Colorado on 16 carries, along with a fumble. He did catch 4 passes for 92 yards and a touchdown, however. Against Florida, he had 16 carries for 75 yards and a touchdown. Their early success must have to do with the easiness of their early schedule, and Harvey especially is going to have to get it together.
I think Brendan Sorsby has another great game, and leads Cincy to a 30-10 win.
18. Northwestern @ Maryland – Both teams are coming into this game looking for their first conference win, and a loss could send them in the completely wrong direction. Northwestern is 2-3, losing 2 straight to Washington and Indiana. As for Maryland, they’re 3-2, and also lost to Indiana in their last game. They had a bye last week, and are hoping the momentum from that week will carry over to this one. I’ll start with Maryland as well, and will Tai Felton…
• Will Tai Felton play this week? When asked whether Felton, another senior receiver Kaden Prather, or safety Dante Trader Jr. would play this week, Mike Locksley said that 2 of the 3 have practiced throughout the week and will play. As for the other one, he didn’t know their status quite yet. Locksley is being pretty vague with his answer, but at least we know that Felton has a pretty good chance of playing. Felton has been a crazy good receiver for Maryland this season, catching 46 passes for 642 yards and 5 touchdowns. He and Billy Edwards Jr. were major reasons why Maryland was 3-1, and if Felton stayed healthy against Indiana, there would’ve been a pretty good chance Marylan won. Even if Felton isn’t back, Edwards will get a boost by having Prather back.
• Northwestern couldn’t do anything on the ground last week. Well, they couldn’t do anything at all last week. NU scored 24 points, which isn’t bad, but had just 336 yards to Indiana’s 530. On the ground specifically last week, NU had just 93 yards, which was a major reason why they were on the field for just under 28 minutes. The Wildcats’ leading rusher was Joseph Himon II, who had 5 carries for just 35 yards. Jack Lausch added 34 yards, and a usually strong Cam Porter had just 15 on 6 carries. He did have a touchdown, however. Caleb Komolafe contributed 9 yards. Porter was a game-time decision, which was a reason why he had just 6 carries, but I would’ve expected him to get more yards with the carries. He’ll be a lot healthier this week, and will get more carries- and hopefully more yards. If he does, NU can take down Maryland.
However, the Terrapins offense, with Felton or not, will be able to lead Maryland to the win, 27-13.
19. Washington State @ Fresno State – Although they lost the first game of their season in their latest game, Washington State is ready to come out and win a big one over Fresno State. As for the Bulldogs, they’re 3-2, but their 2 losses came to Michigan and UNLV, 2 of the better teams on their schedule. They’ve dominated everyone else on their schedule, and are going to need to do that again this week.
• Mac Dalena has been a dominant receiver. Mikey Keene, Fresno State’s quarterback, has found 3 different receivers more than 20 times, and Dalena is one of those receivers. However, those 2 other receivers have 319- and 250-yards to show for it, and a combined 1 touchdown. However, Dalena has used his 22 catches to gain 500 yards and 4 touchdowns, half of the passing touchdowns Fresno State has this season. 7 of his catches and 235 of his yards came back against Sacramento State. And hasn’t gone over 100 yards since, but it still showing up as Keene’s leading receiver, and is going to cause a lot of trouble for a not so good Wazzu defense.
• Ashton Jeanty is going do that to everyone, so don’t focus on that. The Wazzu defense hasn’t been good all season, allowing 468.6 yards per game and 32.4 points per game, while only getting 5 sacks. They got destroyed by Ashton Jeanty, which isn’t a surprise, as they let him run for 260 yards and 4 touchdowns, 2 of which were over 50 yards. Wazzu got bashed, 45-24, but if they to fix their mistakes from last game instead of focusing on this one, they’ll lost again. Their offense did very well even though they had just 24 points, and should be put back on their regular path this week. Fresno State doesn’t really like to run the ball, so the defense might not have to worry about the same situation as last week.
Wazzu’s offense excels once again, and the Cougars win, 38-24.
20. Syracuse @ NC State – Syracuse firing Dino Babers after he led the team to 5-6 might have been one of the best things to happen to the Syracuse program in recent times, as Fran Bron has the Orange at 4-1, and are eyeing a 5-1 start.
• Kyle McCord has been one of the best QBs this year, yet he isn’t in Heisman talks. He has all the criteria for being in Heisman contention, as he’s on a winning team, has great numbers, has a great chance to make the CFP, and a great group of receivers. I’m also really excited that McCord took my advice by finding Oronde Gadsen II a lot last week in the win over UNLV, as Gadsen came down with 10 catches for 142 yards. As for McCord, he’s thrown for 1,814 yards, fourth in the nation, 17 touchdowns, second in the nation, and 6 picks. No one thought McCord would be doing this after the season he had at Ohio State, but now has a really good chance at surpassing those numbers. If McCord can keep Syracuse winning as well, the Orange have a good shot at making the CFP.
• CJ Bailey has been good, not great this season. Bailey started a few games after Grayson McCall was benched, and with what seems to be a season ending injury, although not truly announced, Bailey will be the starter the rest of the way, and NC State is going to need big performances out of him. Bailey has thrown for 741 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 3 picks in 4 games. He's ran for 2 touchdowns as well. Bailey played pretty well against Wake last week, throwing for 272 yards and 2 touchdowns in the narrow loss. The Wolfpack are going to need more performances like that, especially this week.
Although they’re on the road, I’m not picking against Kyle McCord and the Orange, as Syracuse wins, 28-10.
21. UNLV @ Utah State – UNLV was a really nice and inspiring story this season, and after blowing out Fresno State, the Rebels dropped a big game over Syracuse that would’ve most likely shot them way up the rankings. However, they lost and need to not dwell over it, otherwise they’ll drop another game to the lowly 1-4 Utah State Aggies. Utah State has lost 4 straight, but 3 of those came on the road and played Utah pretty close at home. Hopefully they can take that home game momentum into this game. I’ll start with UNLV, however, and…
• Hajj-Malik Williams has dazzled in his 2 games. Two games aren’t ever enough for me to judge a player that’s going to play a big role, especially a quarterback. However, I think I’ve seen all I’ve needed to see from Williams because he has been nothing short of electric. He’s thrown for 409 yards, 6 touchdowns, and just 1 pick, while also rushing for 172 yards and 2 touchdowns. He played a bit against Utah Tech earlier this season, and added 88 yards on the ground there, so he has 260 rushing yards on the season. He’s already their leading rusher, and in those 2 game that he’s started, his 172 yards are just 2 less than UNLV’s would-be leading rusher, post Matthew Sluka. Williams has been deadly accurate as well, completing 83% of his passes. His ability to pass and run has given the Rebels an edge even more that Sluka was bringing, as Williams is a much more talented rusher than Sluka. UNLV is going to need another big game out of Williams as UNLV really gets into the swing of conference play.
• Utah State’s defense has played a big role in their struggles. Whenever a team gets destroyed on the road, its going to be the defenses’ fault. The Aggies are allowing 483.2 yards per game and 41.4 points per game, both second worst in the Mountain West. They have had to play tough teams on the road, like USC and Boise State, and that’s also been a major reason why they’ve been blown out. An already subpar defense isn’t going to hold up against Miller Moss or Ashton Jeanty, and they’re going to have a hard time holding up against Hajj-Malik Williams.
UNLV runs through Utah State on the way to a 42-14 win.
22. (10) Clemson @ Wake Forest – Everyone, including me, wrote Clemson off after their week 1 loss. But amidst the chaos of the 2024 college football season, Clemson’s offense has gone on an incredible run, and now have the Tigers at 4-1 and ranked 10th in the nation. They stay on the road this week, travelling to Winston-Salem to take on the Demon Deacons, who are 2-3, but just beat NC State. I’ll start with Clemson, and everybody is talking about Cade Klubnik, but not…
• Everyone is talking about Cade Klubnik, but not Phil Mafah. People are talking about Klubnik for a reason, however, and because he’s led the resurgence, all eyes are on him. However, all of those eyes are on Klubnik and Mafah, which has led to Mafah having a quietly good season. He’s ran 68 times for 500 yards and 2 touchdowns. He had potentially his best game last week, rushing 25 times for 154 yards. Mafah was a major reason why Clemson gained 500 total yards, held the clock for over 31 minutes, and won the game. If he did it last week, why can’t he do it again? He has a very favorable matchup, as wake Forest allows the most yards per game, third most rush yards per game, and the second most points. Mafah will be able to run all over Wake this week.
• Wake Forest’s offense has been fine, it’s been the defense that’s been the problem. Like I just said, the Wake defense has been horrendous. Allowing 460.2 yards per game and 31 points per game this season, their defense has been their kryptonite. If the Wake defense was better, they very well could be 4-1, only dropping a game to Ole Miss. The defense was once again exposed, if you can even call it that at this point, last week vs NCSU. They allowed 30 points and 419 yards, and could not get off the field. NC State went 8/15 on third downs, which led to the Wake defense being on the field for nearly 36 minutes. The Demon Deacons’ defense is going to have to do a complete 180, because the Clemson offense is red hot.
Clemson steamrolls to a win off the back of Cade Klubnik and Phil Mafah, winning 34-7.
23. Minnesota @ UCLA – After a big upset over USC last week, the 3-3 Golden Gophers travel all the way to SoCal to take on the 1-3 UCLA Bruins. They’ve been blown out in almost every game they’ve played, but could hopefully turn it around this week. I’ll start with Minnesota, however, and…
• Max Brosmer is putting together a pretty good season. I had a lot of doubts about Brosmer coming into this season, as this was his first season playing at an FBS level. He struggled a bit in his early games, but looks to have put those behind him after the USC game. He threw for just 170 yards, yes, but completed 79% of his passes, the second most of his season. The most was against Rode Island, so that was pretty much the most accurate he’s been all season. After being sacked 5 times against Michigan, Brosmer was sacked just once against USC, and was able to stay upright for enough time in order to run for 3 touchdowns. They were all inside of the 5-yard line, but against those big of bodies down low, that’s still impressive. On the year, Brosmer has thrown for 1,263 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 4 picks, while rushing for 4 touchdowns. He has been sacked 14 times, but if the Minnesota o-line keeps playing like they did against USC, that won’t be a big problem.
• UCLA’s offense wasn’t just sluggish against Penn State, they were the entire season. This season, UCLA has gained just 261.6 yards and 14 points per game, both dead last in the Big 10. That means that they are worse than Purdue, who were shut out against Notre Dame and scored just 6 points last week. Against Penn State, UCLA gained just 260 yards and 11 points, which falls nearly identical as their averages. UCLA had just 14 first downs, which didn’t help their case at all. Ethan Garbers did nor play, and UCLA’s head coach, DeShaun Foster, didn’t indicate whether or not Garbers or Justyn Martin, who started against UCLA, would play.
UCLA’s offense hasn’t been good all season, and it doesn’t seem like Foster doesn’t even know who his quarterback will be. Minnesota is rolling high, and they win, 33-14.
24. Mississippi State @ (5) Georgia – With Alabama’s loss to Vanderbilt and Tennessee’s to Arkansas, that second spot in Atlanta is wide open, and Georgia has one of the best shots to get there, and that starts this week. The Bulldogs are just 1-4, and just 1 of 2 teams at the P4 level that doesn’t have an FBS win. Mississippi State’s only win this season came over Eastern Kentucky. I’ll start with the Bulldogs as well, and…
• Their season is on a downwards spiral with Blake Shapen out. MS State still had prominent struggles with Shapen as the starting quarterback, but he was playing well, throwing for 974 yards, 8 touchdowns, and a pick. However, he was injured in the Florida game, and is now out for the year. In his spot was Michael Van Buren Jr., who threw for just 144 yards on 12/23 passing against Texas. Mississippi State gained just 294 yards in the loss. With Georgia this week, Texas A&M next week, and Tennessee, Missouri, and Ole Miss to end the season, Mississippi State could finish the season at just 2-10, with their other win coming over UMass. Mississippi State is going to need the biggest game out of Van Buren Jr. this week, otherwise everyone in the program should be fired.
• Can Trevor Etienne finally break through this game. He wasn’t just one of the most highly anticipated transfers in the SEC this season, he was one of the most highly anticipated transfers in the entire country. Through 4 games, he has just 300 yards to show for it. He's ran 52 times as well, garnering 3 touchdowns. He did have his best game of the season last week, rushing 16 times for 88 yards and 2 touchdowns, while also catching 6 passes for 36 yards. That was great, but he didn’t perform when Georgia needed him most, and is going to need to get ready for those moments next week in this game.
Georgia unsurprisingly steamrolls over Mississippi State, 42-7.
25. Ball State @ Kent State – Yes, this is real. Although there are a lot of marquee matchups this week, a lot of teams are also on bye, and that’s led me to putting this game on the schedule. Ball State and Kent State might be the 2 worst teams in college football, sitting at 1-4 and 0-5, respectively. Ball State’s only win came over Missouri State, while Kent State lost to their FCS opponent, Saint Francis, 23-17. I’ll start with Kent State as well, and…
• Kent State can’t do anything on offense, but could get it going this week. When you’re 0-5, you’re never doing anything right, but its specifically on offense for Kent State. Their defense isn’t doing much better, as they’re allowing 582.6 yards per game and 51.4 points per game, both last in the nation. However, their offense really irks me. They’re averaging just 218.4 yards per game and 14.8 points per game, both worst in the MAC. The yards per game are also worst in the country. Their starting quarterback, Devin Kargman, has thrown for just 432 yards, along with3 touchdowns and 2 picks. He didn’t play against Eastern Michigan, and is out for the year. Kent State did score 33 points against Eastern Michigan, by far the most of their year. Tommy Ulatowski started, and threw for 345 yards and had 4 total touchdowns. If he can keep playing like that this week, Kent State could earn their first win.
• Ball State’s offense has been pretty average, but their defense hasn’t. They’re allowing 512.8 yards per game and 48.2 points per game, both second worst in the MAC. They can stop anyone from Missouri State to Miami, and it’s probably going to continue this week. They’ve forced just 4 picks, and only 1 of those were a pick. They’ve sacked opposing quarterbacks 7 times, second worst in the MAC. Ball State is going to have change some major things up on defense in order to get back on track this season.
With Kent State’s offense on the rise, I think they can take down Ball State and win, 27-21. Should be close but very, very sloppy.
My top 5 Heisman Candidates:
1. Cam Ward, QB, Miami – Things looked bleak for the Canes, down 25 in the third quarter. They inched a little closer in the fourth quarter, but were still down 20. That’s when Ward turned it on and showed us why he should win the Heisman. He threw 2 touchdown passes, including the game-winning one, and ran for a 24-yard touchdown. On Miami’s final drive, they started from their own 8, and what did Cam Ward do? He exposed a broken coverage and threw it to Xavier Restrepo for 77 yards, taking them all the way to Cal’s 15. After being backed up the Golden Bears’ 25, Ward found Damien Martinez for 22 yards. A few plays later, Ward found Elijah Arroyo for the game-winning touchdown. Ward finished with 437 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 pick on 35/53 passing. He ran for the 24-yard touchdown as well, and that was about the only thing he did on the ground. Ward has now thrown for 2,219 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while rushing for 3 touchdowns. Ward now leads the country in passing yards and touchdowns. We all know that the Heisman has been a quarterback award as of late, and it could be the Heisman aWard after this year. Miami has a bye this week before the toughest game in the rest of their schedule, which is a trip to Louisville. If they can get out of that game, Miami should be undefeated going into the ACC championship game.
2. Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State – I’ve left Jeanty off in the past few weeks because of all of the good quarterback play that we’ve seen. However, Dillon Gabriel struggled, Jaxson Dart didn’t have a characteristic game, Milroe also struggled, and Beck didn’t move me at all. Jeanty continued his domination, rushing just 13 times, gaining 186 yards and 3 touchdowns. That was all in the first half, too. He needed just 155 yards to reach the 1,000 mark, and he obviously did that. He became the 8th FBS running back since 1996 to reach 2,000 rushing yards only 5 games into the season. Jeanty has ran 95 teams to lead the country in yards with 1,031. He’s the only rushing back so far this season with 1,000 rushing yards. He has an insane 16 touchdowns, by far the most in the country. The record is 37, and I don’t think it’s a record that Jeanty can’t break. If Boise State keeps trending the way they are, he should have them in the CFP. With that many extra games available, Jeanty could hit 40. Boise State has Hawaii this week, but it is on the road. Going to Hawaii is always hard, no matter how good of a team you have. They have a bye week after that before the biggest game on their schedule left, a road game at UNLV. We’ll see if UNLV can rebound from this loss they had last week, but if Boise State can get passed them, they have a wide-open path to the Mountain West championship.
3. Travis Hunter WR/CB, Colorado – Travis Hunter might be one of the best players in college football right now, and he can solidify that with a win over Kansas State this week. He had a bye week last week, so he has the exact same stats as last week. If Colorado can take down K-State this week, they would move to 3-0 in the Big 12, and have a genuine shot at making the title game. They host Utah, which is a great advantage, but do have to go to Arizona and Texas Tech. Their other games shouldn’t be challenging, as they host Cincy and Oklahoma State, and play Kansas on the road. If Hunter does keep playing the way he is, however, it might not matter Colorado’s schedule.
4. Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama – Alabama somehow just lost to Vanderbilt, but it honestly wasn’t Milroe’s fault. His pick that was returned for a touchdown, was batted up into the air. He was also on the field for just 18 minutes, and there’s nothing he can do about that. Now, I can’t defend his fumble, because he just did not move in the pocket. Milroe still had good stats, as he went 18/24, throwing for 310 yards, 1 touchdown, but the 1 pick. He also ran for a 14-yard touchdown, but had the aforementioned fumble. Milroe has thrown for 1,274 yards, 11 touchdowns, and just 2 picks on his best completion percentage of his career, which is 73.4%. On the ground, he has 283 yards and 9 touchdowns, the third most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in the nation. Milroe has South Carolina this week, but that could be the second easiest game on their schedule. The first is obviously Mercer, but for Bama’s SEC play, it does not look good. After SC, they have to go to Tennessee, then host Missouri, go to LSU, then go to Oklahoma after the Mercer game. They finish their season with the Iron Bowl at home, but Auburn nearly upset Bama last year, so I’m not ruling out anything.
5. Carson Beck, QB, Georgia – Beck and Georgia rebounded after their loss to Bama by taking out their frustration on Auburn. Beck didn’t play insanely well, but going from throwing 3 picks and completing 54% of your passes to throwing no picks and completing 79.3% of your passes is a pretty big jump. Beck also threw for 240 yards and 2 touchdowns. He’s thrown for 1,360 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 3 picks this season. Beck didn’t do anything that wowed me against Auburn, which is why he stays at 5. Georgia has Mississippi State at home this week, and that comes a week before a road trip to Texas.